New Zealand Advances to the Final of the World Test Cricket Championship
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies puts them in a favorable position to reach the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s.
New Zealand was on the verge of reaching the top spot in the Test rankings, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington.
However, the news was accompanied by some confusion. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s predictive tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which generated doubts in the cricket community. Subsequently, the ICC clarified that Australia occupies first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia could consolidate its leadership if it wins the series at home against India. For its part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies gave them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.
If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, they will accumulate 420 points from five series.
This implies that India needs five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s.
In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC modified the classification criteria, switching from absolute points to a percentage of points played.
Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead with a percentage of 74.17. If they lose 1-2, their percentage will drop to 70. Australia also has a three-match Test series scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins both Tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points disputed.
When India completes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each remaining Test victory will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories, or four victories and three draws, will put them ahead of New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India versus Australia and New Zealand versus Pakistan series unfold, Australia could extend its lead in first place or concede ground to New Zealand.
