New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies gives them a real chance of reaching the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand finished the series very close to the top spot in the Test ranking: they are only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory by innings in Wellington. However, the news was accompanied by some confusion. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which raised doubts in the cricket community. This, apparently, was an error, as the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia occupies first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. The prediction tool subsequently reflected this ranking. Australia could extend their slight lead if they win the series at home against India, but the two victories over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points in four series of the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later in their summer, they will finish with 420 points in five series. This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final to be played at Lord’s in the English summer. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to earn points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the qualification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. In other words, points per series played. Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia is also scheduled to play a series of three Tests in South Africa. If New Zealand wins both Test matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.By the time India, currently with 360 points in four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will leave them ahead of New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could increase its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
