New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies gives them a strong chance of reaching the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand was very close to first place in the Test ranking, only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington. After the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table for several hours, which generated some confusion. However, this turned out to be an error, as the ICC clarified that Australia holds the first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia could extend their lead if they win the home series against India. For their part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies earned them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan, they will finish with 420 points from five series. This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final, which will be played at Lord’s. In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh. Due to the impossibility of playing some series, the ICC had to change the classification criteria, going from absolute points to a percentage of points played, that is, points per series played. Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. Australia also has a three-match test series scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins both test matches against Pakistan, they will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points contested.By the time India, which currently has 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories, or four victories and three draws, will leave them ahead of New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead in the number 1 position or concede ground to New Zealand.
