New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has given them a strong chance of reaching the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be held at Lord’s in June 2021.
New Zealand was a step away from reaching the top spot in the Test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia after their victory in Wellington.
After the match, the ICC’s predictive tool initially showed New Zealand at the top, generating some confusion. However, the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia holds the first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. The predictive tool subsequently reflected this ranking.
Australia will look to consolidate their lead in the home series against India. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies have given them 300 points in the WTC, coming from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they achieve the same result against Pakistan, they will finish with 420 points from five series.
This would mean that India would need five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final.
In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh. However, due to the impossibility of playing some series, the ICC modified the classification criteria, going from absolute points to a percentage of points played. That is, points per series played.
Currently, Australia leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead with a percentage of 74.17%. If they lose 1-2, their percentage will decrease to 70%. Australia also has a three-Test match series scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins its two Tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.
When India completes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series, or 720 points. It will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each remaining victory in the Tests will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will put them ahead of New Zealand.
As for the rankings, depending on India’s performance against Australia and New Zealand against Pakistan, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
