The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies in the series gives them a real chance of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand moved a step closer to reaching the top spot in the Test rankings, being only 0.086 points behind Australia. This was after their victory in Wellington.
However, the news was not without drama. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s predictor tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, generating confusion in the cricket community. This error was clarified by the ICC via a tweet, where it was specified that Australia remained in first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand had 116.375.
Australia could extend their lead if they win the home series against India. For their part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies gave them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later on, they will finish with 420 points from five series. This will leave India needing to secure five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Tests (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final to be played at Lord’s. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the criteria for absolute points classification to a percentage of points played. That is, points per series played.Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70.
Australia also has a series of three Tests scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins both Tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points contested.By the time India, who currently has 360 points from four series played, finishes their series against Australia and England, they will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to beat New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five wins or four wins and three draws will leave them ahead of New Zealand.
As for the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or cede ground to New Zealand.
