India vs Australia: WTC Keys. What does India need to qualify?

Australia vs India: A Clash with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter. With the final of the World Test Cricket Championship on the horizon in June, this match takes on even greater relevance for both teams. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has catapulted them to third place in the championship standings. If they manage to repeat this feat against Pakistan, both Australia and India will need to redouble their efforts to stay ahead.

India’s Perspective

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points with a percentage of 75%. They have two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both consist of four tests, which implies the same point allocation: 30 for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand scores all possible points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. To secure their position above New Zealand, India must surpass this percentage. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved by winning five matches or, alternatively, by winning four and drawing three.

With their strong home record, India has a good chance of scoring points against England. This means they will need at least one win or three draws in the four matches against Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia with a score of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. The only way to achieve this is by winning all four matches, as a victory grants 30 points and a draw, 10.

The Outlook for Australia

Australia has played three series, scoring 296 points with a percentage of 82.22%. They need to exceed 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. In case of cancellation, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Since the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three tests, 40 points will be awarded for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury concerns, Australia remains in a favorable position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends in a 2-2 draw, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, a 1-0 victory against South Africa would propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need to win the series against South Africa 2-0 to stay above 70%.