India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India transcends individual competition, becoming a highly significant event. In addition to the prestige at stake, the confrontation is of crucial importance in the run-up to the World Test Championship final in June. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to strive to stay above.

Analysis of Classification Opportunities

India

Matches played: 4, Points: 360, Percentage of points: 75 India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both consist of four test matches, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s strong home record, they have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This will mean they need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia

Games played: 3, Points: 296, Percentage of points: 82.22 Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to obtain a points percentage greater than 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Given the expectation that the series against South Africa will be three test matches, 40 points will be offered for a win and 13 for a draw. Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a solid position, thanks to the total points it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, slightly surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.