India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter; it is a high-stakes series with a lot at stake. In addition to the inherent rivalry, this duel has a significant impact on the qualification for the final of the World Test Cricket Championship, which will be held in June. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

The Outlook for India

India has played four series so far, accumulating 360 points with a percentage of 75%. They have two series left in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both consist of four tests, which implies the same point allocation: 30 for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s impressive home record, they have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This would mean they would need at least one win or three draws in the four matches against Australia to reach the target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia with a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches, as a win awards 30 points and a draw, 10.

The Situation in Australia

Australia, with three series played, has a total of 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. They need to surpass 420 points to achieve a percentage higher than 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. The series against South Africa, which is expected to consist of three tests, will award 40 points for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury problems, Australia is in a solid position, thanks to the accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series win against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.