India vs Australia: WTC Keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India, on its own, is a sporting event of great relevance. However, with the final of the World Test Championship (WTC) on the horizon in June, the encounter takes on even greater importance for both teams. New Zealand’s recent 2-0 victory over the West Indies puts them in third place in the championship table. If they repeat that performance against Pakistan later in the season, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

Situation in India

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, with a points percentage of 75%. They have two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England, both of four test matches. This means that the points allocation for both series is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India needs to surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s impressive home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will grant 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a points percentage of 82.22%. Currently, they need to surpass 420 to have a points percentage greater than 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Since the series against South Africa is expected to be three test matches, there will be 40 points available for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite multiple injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position, thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points, and a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.