India vs Australia: WTC Keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the simple appeal of a high-level match, as both teams have a lot at stake, especially with the World Test Cricket Championship final on the horizon in June. The series, along with the one India will play at home against England, will be crucial for their qualification aspirations. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory against the West Indies propels them to third place in the championship table. If they repeat that performance against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

Situation in India

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points with a percentage of 75%. They have two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England, both of four-match test series. This means that the points allocation for both series is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. India needs to surpass that 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s excellent home record, they will have good opportunities to get all the points against England. This means they will need at least one victory or three draws in the four test matches in Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches, as a win awards 30 points and a draw, 10.

Situation in Australia

Australia has played three series, with 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. They need to surpass 420 points to have a percentage higher than 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three test matches, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw. Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia is in a strong position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.