India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India, by itself, is a very important event. However, with the World Test Championship (WTC) final in June, the scenario becomes even more relevant for both teams. New Zealand’s recent 2-0 victory against the West Indies places them third in the championship table. If they repeat this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India in the Race for Qualification

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points with a percentage of 75%. It still has two series ahead in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both are four-test series, which means the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets a target of 70% that India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s impressive home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach that 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches.

Australia: Position and Strategies

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. They need to exceed 420 points to have a percentage greater than 70%, if the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite multiple concerns about injuries, Australia remains in a solid position, thanks to the accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will be at 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will push them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.