India vs Australia: WTC keys; How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter; it is a high-stakes series with much at stake. In addition to prestige, both teams are competing for a place in the final of the World Test Cricket Championship, which will be held in June. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has catapulted them to third place in the championship table. If they manage to repeat this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will be forced to strive to maintain their position.

Next, we will analyze the impact of this series and the one India will play at home against England, on their qualification aspirations.

India

Series played: 4, Points: 360, Percentage of points: 75 India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both consist of four test matches, which implies the same points allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand scores all possible points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This means that India will have to exceed that 70% to secure their position above New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This could happen in two ways: winning five matches or winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s exceptional home record, they have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This would mean they would need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia

Series played: 3, Points: 296, Percentage of points: 82.22 Currently, Australia has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to achieve a percentage above 70%, in case the series against South Africa is held. If that series is canceled, its goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three test matches, 40 points will be awarded for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position, thanks to the accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series win against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need to win the series against South Africa 2-0 to stay above 70%.