India vs Australia: WTC Keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India, by itself, is a major event. However, with the World Test Championship (WTC) final on the horizon in June, both teams have a lot at stake in terms of qualification. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory over the West Indies propels them to third place in the championship table. If they repeat that feat against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India: Rating Outlook

India has played 4 series, scoring 360 points with a percentage of 75%. They have two series left in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-test series, which means the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their count will rise to 420, and their points percentage to 70%. This means that India needs to exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points, out of the 240 available in these two series. This can happen in two ways: if India wins five matches, or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).

Given India’s excellent home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England; that will mean they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach that 150-point target.

For example, if India loses to Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will get 30 points and a draw 10, the only way they can reach 110 is if they win all four.

Australia: Current Situation

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. They need to exceed 420 to have a percentage of points greater than 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336. Since the South Africa series is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points available for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia is still in a strong position, thanks to the points tally they have already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will be on 356 points, and a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, and just beyond New Zealand’s reach. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.