India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India transcends individual competition, becoming a highly significant event with important consequences, especially with the final of the World Test Cricket Championship on the horizon in June. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory against the West Indies places them in third place in the championship table. If they achieve the same result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India in the Race for Qualification

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, with a points percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both are four-match test series, which means the same point allocation: 30 for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s impressive home record, they will have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win or three draws in the four test matches in Australia to reach that 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia: Position and Perspectives

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to achieve a percentage above 70%, provided the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. The series against South Africa is expected to consist of three test matches, with 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.