India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India transcends the appeal of a stellar clash, as the landscape of the World Test Cricket Championship in June adds an extra layer of importance for both teams. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies positions them in third place in the table, and a similar performance against Pakistan could complicate the situation for Australia and India. We analyze what this series, and the one in India at home against England, mean for their qualification aspirations.

India

Games played: 4, Points: 360, Percentage of points: 75 India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match series, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand scores all the points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s exceptional home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This will mean they will need at least one win or three draws in the four matches against Australia to reach the desired 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Considering that a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia

Games played: 3, Points: 296, Percentage of points: 82.22 Australia, currently with 296 points, needs to surpass 420 to reach a percentage above 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, its goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three matches, 40 points will be awarded for a win and 13 for a draw. Despite injury concerns, Australia is in a solid position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.