India vs Australia: WTC keys. How many wins does India need?

The Australia vs. India Clash: Keys to Qualification for the World Test Cricket Championship

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter, establishing itself as a series of great relevance. With the final of the World Test Cricket Championship on the horizon in June, both teams are playing for much more than immediate prestige. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory over the West Indies propels them to third place in the championship table. If the “Black Caps” repeat the feat against Pakistan, both Australia and India will need to strive to stay above them.

Analysis of India’s Possibilities

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points and a percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both consist of four test matches, which implies the same point allocation: 30 for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand scores all possible points against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. Therefore, India will have to exceed that 70% to stay ahead of the “Kiwis”. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s impressive home record, they will have a good chance of adding full points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses to Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches, as a win awards 30 points and a draw, 10.

Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, scoring 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. Australia needs to score over 420 points to maintain a percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. Otherwise, their goal will be to score over 336 points. In a three-test series against South Africa, 40 points will be awarded for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury problems, Australia is in a favorable position thanks to the points already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. Even a 1-0 victory against South Africa would boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory over South Africa to remain above 70%.