India vs Australia: WTC Keys and the Road to the Final

Australia vs India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India, on its own, is a sporting event of great relevance. However, with the final of the World Test Championship (WTC) on the horizon in June, the encounter takes on even greater importance for both teams. New Zealand’s recent 2-0 victory over the West Indies puts them in third place in the championship table. If they repeat the same result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

Classification Perspectives

We analyze the impact of this series, along with the home series against England, on their qualification chances.

India

Series played: 4, Points: 360, Percentage of points: 75 India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-Test series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, and their points percentage to 70. This means that India’s goal is to exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: if India wins five matches, or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).

Given India’s impressive home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England; this means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach that 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will grant 30 points and a draw 10, the only way they can reach 110 is if they win all four matches.

Australia

Series played: 3, Points: 296, Percentage of points: 82.22 Currently, Australia has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage above 70 if the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points at stake per victory and 13 per draw.

Despite multiple injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position, thanks to the total points it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.