The Crucial Path to the World Test Championship Final: Australia vs. India
The series between Australia and India, on its own, is a sporting event of great magnitude. However, with the World Test Championship (WTC) final on the horizon in June, both teams have a lot at stake in terms of qualification.
New Zealand’s 2-0 victory over the West Indies propels them to third place in the championship table. If they repeat that result against Pakistan later in the season, both Australia and India will have work to do to stay above them.
The Situation in India
India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, with a points percentage of 75%.
India has two series left in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match test series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw.
If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This means that 70% is the target India needs to surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand.
To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points, out of the 240 offered in these two series. This can happen in two ways: if India wins five matches, or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).
Given India’s strong home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England; that will mean they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach that 150-point target.
If, for example, India loses to Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will earn 30 points and a draw 10, the only way they can reach 110 is if they win all four matches.
Australia’s Position
Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a points percentage of 82.22%.
Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage greater than 70%, if the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, its goal will be to surpass 336. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.
Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia is still in a strong position, thanks to the points tally they have already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series win against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, and just beyond New Zealand’s reach. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.
