India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting event, becoming a series of great relevance with important consequences, especially with the final of the World Test Cricket Championship on the horizon in June. New Zealand’s triumph over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, positions them in third place in the championship table. If they repeat this performance against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to redouble their efforts to stay above them.

India’s Perspectives

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points with a percentage of 75%. They have two series left in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match test series, which means the same point allocation: 30 for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can happen in two ways: winning five matches or winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s strong home record, they will have a good chance of getting maximum points against England; this will mean they will need at least one win or three draws in the four test matches in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

Yes, for example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will award 30 points and a draw 10, the only way they can reach 110 is if they win all four matches.

Situation in Australia

Australia, with three series played, has a total of 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. They need to surpass 420 points to achieve a percentage higher than 70%, assuming the series against South Africa is played. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Since the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three test matches, 40 points will be awarded for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury problems, Australia remains in a solid position, thanks to the accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will push them to 422 points, slightly surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series result against South Africa to stay above 70%.