India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends individual competition, becoming a series of great relevance with much at stake. Furthermore, with the World Test Championship final on the horizon in June, both teams are playing for much more than victory in each match. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory over the West Indies propels them to third place in the championship table. If they repeat that result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will need to work hard to stay above them.

India’s Path to Classification

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points with a percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both are four-match test series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This means India’s goal is to surpass that 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s impressive home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England; this will mean they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

The Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, scoring 296 points with a percentage of 82.22%. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three test matches, there will be 40 points at stake per victory and 13 per draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand’s reach. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.