India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: Much more than a series

The Australia vs. India clash is a series of great importance, but with the World Test Championship final on the horizon in June, there’s a lot at stake for both teams. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory against the West Indies puts them in third place in the championship table. Both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India: Rating Outlook

India has played 4 series, with 360 points and a points percentage of 75%. They have two series left in the current cycle, against Australia and England, both of four tests. The point allocation for both series is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their score will rise to 420, and their points percentage to 70. This means India’s goal is to exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 offered by these two series. This can happen in two ways: if India wins five matches, or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).

Given India’s outstanding home record, they will have a good opportunity to get all the points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach the target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will grant 30 points and a draw 10, the only way they can reach 110 is if they win all four matches.

Australia: Current Situation

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a point percentage of 82.22. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to have a points percentage above 70, if the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points on offer for a win and 13 for a draw. Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia is still in a solid position, thanks to the number of points it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points, and a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series win against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, and just beyond New Zealand’s reach. If they lose 1-2 to India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.