India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter; it is a high-stakes series with a lot at stake. In addition to direct competition, both teams have their sights set on the World Test Championship final in June, which adds an extra layer of importance. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate that result against Pakistan this season, both Australia and India will have to strive to stay above them in the standings.

Series Analysis and Classification Perspectives

Below, we examine what this series and India’s home series against England mean for their qualification chances.

India

Series played: 4, Points: 360, Percentage of points: 75 India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match test series, which means the points allocation is the same for both: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, and their points percentage to 70. This means that the target India must surpass is 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 offered in these two series. This can happen in two ways: if India wins five matches, or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).

Given India’s strong home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England; that will mean they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

For example, if India loses to Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will award 30 points and a draw 10, the only way they can reach 110 is if they win all four matches.

Australia

Series played: 3, Points: 296, Percentage of points: 82.22 Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage above 70, if the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three test matches, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a solid position, thanks to the total points it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, and just beyond the reach of New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.