India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

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Australia vs India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India, in itself, is a major event. However, with the World Test Cricket Championship final on the horizon in June, the importance of this series rises even more for both teams. The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate that success against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to strive to the utmost to stay above them.

Analysis of India’s Possibilities

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points with a 75% percentage. It still has two series pending in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both consist of four test matches, awarding the same number of points: 30 for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand scores full points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to secure their position above New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs to score at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.
Given India’s impressive home record, they have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India lost against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they would need 110 points from the series against England. The only way to reach that figure (winning all four matches) would be to obtain 30 points for each victory.

Situation in Australia

Australia, with three series played, accumulates 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. They need to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage higher than 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. In case of cancellation, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. If the series against South Africa is maintained, it is expected to consist of three test matches, with 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.
Despite injury problems, Australia remains in a solid position thanks to the points already obtained. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 victory against South Africa would boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, they will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.
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