India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

The Crucial Challenge: Australia vs. India and the World Test Championship Final

The series between Australia and India, on its own, is a highly significant event in the world of cricket. However, with the World Test Championship (WTC) final on the horizon, this competition takes on an even greater dimension for both teams. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to repeat this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India: Rating Outlook

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, which represents 75% of points. India has two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both are four-test series, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This means that India must exceed that 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s impressive home record, they have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This would mean they need at least one win, or three draws, in the four matches against Australia to reach the 150 points needed.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points, considering that a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, is by winning all four matches.

Australia: Current Situation

Australia has played 3 series, scoring 296 points, with a percentage of 82.22%. Currently, Australia needs to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. The series against South Africa, which is expected to be three tests, will award 40 points for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury problems, Australia is in a favorable position thanks to the accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa would boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 result against South Africa to stay above 70%.