India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India, beyond its intrinsic importance, takes on even greater relevance due to the upcoming World Test Cricket Championship final in June. Both teams have a lot at stake in this encounter, with the aim of securing their place in the final. The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies (2-0) has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to repeat this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to redouble their efforts to stay above them.

The Outlook for India

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points and a points percentage of 75%. They still have two series left in this cycle, against Australia and England, both of four tests. This implies that the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand scores all possible points in their series against Pakistan, they will reach 420 points with a percentage of 70%. This sets the target for India: to exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s strong home record, they have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four matches against Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points, knowing that a win grants 30 and a draw 10, is by winning all four matches.

The Situation in Australia

Australia, for its part, has played three series, scoring 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. They need to exceed 420 points to reach a percentage higher than 70%, as long as the series against South Africa is played. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. In the event that the series against South Africa is a three-test series, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury problems, Australia is in a favorable position thanks to the points accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 victory against South Africa would propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.