India vs Australia: How to secure a place in the WTC final?

Australia vs India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India, in itself, is a high-stakes series with a lot at stake. However, with the World Test Championship final in June, both teams have much more at stake in terms of the standings. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory against the West Indies puts them in third place in the championship table. If they repeat that result against Pakistan later in the season, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

The Qualification Landscape for India

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points and a points percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match series, which means the points allocation for both is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, and their points percentage to 70%. This means that the target India needs to surpass is 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 offered in these two series. This can happen in two ways: if India wins five matches, or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).

Considering India’s excellent home record, they will have a good opportunity to get all the points against England; that will mean they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach that 150-point target.

For example, if India loses to Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will award 30 points and a draw 10, the only way they can reach 110 is if they win all four matches.

The situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a points percentage of 82.22%. Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia is still in a strong position, thanks to the total points it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, and just beyond the reach of New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 to India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.