India vs Australia: Equations for the WTC Final; What does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India, in itself, is a major sporting event. However, with the World Test Championship final on the horizon in June, the significance of this series is amplified for both teams. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If New Zealand repeats this performance against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to maintain their position.

India: Rating Outlook

India has participated in 4 series, accumulating 360 points, with a points percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England, both consisting of four test matches. This implies the same points allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. India will need to surpass this percentage to secure their position. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s impressive home record, they have a good chance of getting all the points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach their target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia with a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. The only way to reach 110 points is by winning all four matches, as a win awards 30 points and a draw, 10.

Australia: Current Situation

Australia has played 3 series, scoring 296 points, with a points percentage of 82.22%. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to maintain a percentage above 70% if the series against South Africa takes place. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given the expectation that the series against South Africa will consist of three test matches, 40 points will be offered for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury problems, Australia is in a solid position due to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. Even a 1-0 series against South Africa would boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.