India vs Australia: Equations for the World Test Cricket Final

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter, establishing itself as a series of great importance. With the final of the World Test Cricket Championship on the horizon in June, the impact of this series extends to a broader panorama for both teams. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, places them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this result against Pakistan later in the season, both Australia and India will face the task of maintaining their privileged position.

Analysis of India’s Aspirations

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points, which translates to a percentage of 75%. They still have two series left to play in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both series consist of four tests, which means that the point allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to maintain its position ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs to score at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s impressive home record, they have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This would mean they would need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach the 150 points needed.

For example, if India loses against Australia with a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points in the series against England. As a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

The Situation in Australia

Australia has played three series, accumulating 296 points, with a percentage of 82.22%. Currently, they need to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, as long as the series against South Africa is played. If this series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Since the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three tests, 40 points will be awarded for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia is in a strong position, thanks to the accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa would propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.