India vs Australia: Equations for the Cricket World Cup Final

Australia vs. India: A Clash with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India is a major sporting event in its own right. However, with the World Test Cricket Championship final on the horizon, scheduled for June, the series takes on even greater importance for both teams.

New Zealand’s recent 2-0 victory against the West Indies propels them to third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate that result against Pakistan later in the season, both Australia and India will need to strive to stay above them in the standings.

Classification Perspectives for India

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, which represents 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match test series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India needs to surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s outstanding track record as a host, they will have a good opportunity to get the maximum points against England. This will mean they need at least one win or three draws in the four test matches in Australia to reach the target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, obtaining 296 points, with a points percentage of 82.22%. Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336. Since the series against South Africa is expected to be three test matches, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a solid position, thanks to the points it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, slightly surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.