India Needs 5 Wins for Final WTC: Key Analysis against Australia

Australia vs. India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter, becoming a series of great relevance. In addition to the individual competition, this match has a significant weight in the panorama of the World Test Cricket Championship, whose final is approaching in June. New Zealand’s 2-0 triumph over the West Indies has propelled them to third place in the championship standings. If they manage to repeat this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will need to work hard to stay above them in the table.

The India Panorama

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points and a percentage of 75%. It still has two series pending in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both series consist of four test matches, which means that the allocation of points is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. This sets the target for India: to surpass 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s outstanding home record, they will have a good opportunity to get all the points against England. This would mean they need at least one win, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

The Situation in Australia

Australia has participated in three series, accumulating 296 points and a percentage of 82.22%. Currently, they need to surpass 420 points to achieve a percentage higher than 70%, in case the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Since the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three test matches, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury problems, Australia is in a solid position, thanks to the accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will push them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.