Jake Paul vs. Chávez Jr: Does the YouTuber win or the boxing legacy? Analysis.

Jake Paul returns to the ring in 2025, facing former middleweight champion Julio César Chávez Jr. in a ten-round bout in Anaheim, California. This will be Paul’s thirteenth professional fight, and the first against a former boxing champion, apart from the match against Mike Tyson last November.On paper, Chávez Jr. could be the most demanding opponent Paul has had, excluding Tyson. However, Chávez has only fought once since December 2021. Furthermore, even at his best, Chávez was not known for his discipline in training, having failed to make weight on several occasions. In his golden era (2008-2016), he demonstrated a lack of focus and inconsistency, with failed drug tests in 2009 and 2012, and refusing to undergo a doping test before his fight against Daniel Jacobs in December 2019, which earned him an indefinite suspension.In 2021, Chávez lost to Anderson Silva, former UFC champion. Despite the defeat, Chávez competed with dignity, making the fight interesting at times. Although he won the WBC middleweight title in 2011, Chávez has always been in the shadow of his father, Julio César Chávez Sr., a Mexican boxing legend. Why believe that Chávez will focus on this fight?On the other hand, Paul has remained active, fighting three times in 2024 and defeating Anderson Silva in 2022. He has approached the sport cautiously, like any rookie, but with different rules due to his popularity and media influence.The key question for this fight is not whether Paul can beat Chávez, but whether Chávez can beat Paul.

Paul’s Evolution as a Boxer

Paul exhibits good footwork and strong legs, allowing him to move with agility. In boxing, footwork is essential for dodging punches and creating attack angles. True skill lies in the details: recognizing angles, setting traps, and using movement to shorten distances.Paul is beginning to master these subtleties. After five years in boxing, he has gained composure and confidence in the ring. His right hook is one of his most developed weapons, often disguised with a low jab, deceiving his opponent before throwing a powerful punch.Deception is crucial in boxing. Paul is evolving in this aspect, relying more on intelligence than brute force. He is adopting the “hit and don’t get hit” philosophy, implementing a more technical boxing style.Although he still lacks the refined technique of an experienced boxer, Paul can be instinctively dangerous and surprisingly strong thanks to his peculiar style.After 12 professional fights, Paul has earned the respect of his colleagues for his dedication and his impact outside the ring, promoting women’s boxing and creating opportunities for other boxers. He is said to be disciplined in the gym and willing to work hard inside and outside the ring.

The Advantages of Chávez

Chávez possesses the composure of a veteran raised in boxing royalty. His presence in the ring radiates confidence, a product of muscle memory and years of high-level competition. His intelligence in the ring manifests in his instinctive movement. In July 2024, Chávez returned after an absence of almost three years, winning by unanimous decision against Uriah Hall.Chávez fights with a high and closed guard, leaning forward with the weight on his front foot, a classic Mexican boxing stance. His favorite weapon is the left hook, which he often throws to the body at the beginning of the fight, wearing down his opponent.Chávez understands the fundamentals of boxing and his experience gives him an advantage over Paul, whose development in the sport is still ongoing.

Paul’s Improved Left Hook

It is expected that Paul will use a varied jab, changing levels and rhythms. He will use in-and-out movements, exploiting the distance to connect punches, hooks, and combinations, and then retreat to avoid Chávez’s counterattacks. This “hit and not be hit” strategy depends on hand and foot speed, as well as timing.It is anticipated that Paul will initiate clinches to disrupt Chávez’s rhythm and neutralize his offense, especially when Paul is not ready to strike. His left hook is an effective tool, which he will use to damage and reposition himself; this lateral movement could be key to avoiding Chávez’s power punches.Pay attention to Paul’s jab; it’s not just about speed, but also about variety. He will use body feints to disorganize Chávez’s attack patterns. When Chávez loads his dangerous left hook, Paul must keep his guard up to protect his chin.Paul’s footwork will be crucial at the beginning, when both boxers are full of adrenaline. As the fight progresses, Paul will seek to pressure and accelerate the pace.

Chávez’s Established Left Hook

It is likely that Chávez will start the fight cautiously, like a veteran, studying Paul. It is likely that he will test Paul’s power, receiving some blows on the gloves to feel the strength of his fists. A punch that Chávez usually uses is the body jab, which he uses to create traps, combining a low blow with a more dangerous one above.

Observe if Paul drops his hands or extends his low guard to block the jab. Chávez will throw his dangerous left hook, which is fast and effective. The way Paul defends this jab will reveal a lot about his intelligence in the ring.

How Could the Fight Develop?

Paul will seek to impose his size and physique, pressuring Chávez and trying to unbalance him with offensive combinations. Stamina will be a key factor. Although this will be Paul’s first 10-round fight, the physical difference between the two boxers will be evident. Paul has a slimmer and more athletic physique, while Chávez could look somewhat more robust.Chávez has a path to victory. He can keep the fight at mid-range, attack the body from the start, and respond to Paul’s offense with his own. However, Paul’s youth, athleticism, and improved understanding of when to box and when to grapple make him a dangerous opponent.

Who will win? I believe this is a match between two boxers on different paths: one born into the sport and the other finding his place in it. I think the difference in experience and Paul’s motivation could be decisive factors. Can Chávez beat Paul? Definitely. But I don’t think he will.