Canelo vs. Crawford: The Fight of the Year on Patriot Weekend

Canelo vs. Crawford: An Epic Encounter on Mexican Independence Day

The weekend of Mexican Independence Day is traditionally one of the most important in the boxing world. This year is no exception, with Mexican superstar Canelo Álvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) defending his undisputed super middleweight championship against former two-division undisputed champion Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs), at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Saturday. This event, dubbed “Once in a Lifetime” by the organizers, features Crawford moving up two weight classes to challenge Canelo, with the goal of becoming the first male boxer to be undisputed champion in three weight divisions in the “four-belt era.” For Canelo, this could be the toughest challenge since his defeat to Dmitry Bivol in 2022. This fight will define the legacy of both boxers, who are looking to etch their names on boxing’s Mount Rushmore. Here’s everything you need to know about this bout.

Why is Canelo Fighting Crawford?

The short answer is that Canelo ran out of options and the chairman of Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority, Turki Alalshikh, wanted this fight. After losing to Bivol in 2022, Canelo has opted for the path of least resistance, much to the dismay of many fans. In his last six fights, he has defeated Gennadiy “GGG” Golovkin, a boxer past his prime and on the verge of retirement; Jermell Charlo, a smaller fighter; three less deserving opponents (John Ryder, Jaime Munguia, and Edgar Berlanga) and a practically unknown fighter (William Scull). Each of those fights ended in unanimous decisions for Canelo. He did everything possible to avoid David Benavidez.

Meanwhile, Crawford has been lurking since his victory over Errol Spence Jr. in 2023 to become undisputed welterweight champion. Crawford said he initially didn’t have Canelo on his radar due to the size difference, but his insatiable appetite for overcoming adversity led him to seek the fight last year. Canelo initially dismissed a fight with Crawford.

“If I win, nobody will say: ‘Oh, he beat Crawford because [Canelo] is a good fighter.’ He is a great pound-for-pound as well, but he is smaller. You will start to see ‘but he is small and this.’ But if the money is right, why not at this moment in my career?”

Canelo

After the fight with Berlanga, Canelo began negotiating with the influencer Jake Paul. A deal was imminent until Alalshikh intervened with an offer of four Riyadh Season fights worth an estimated $400 million that Canelo couldn’t refuse. Step 1 of the deal was to become undisputed super middleweight champion again by defeating Scull, then the stage was set for Saturday’s showdown.

Is Crawford the 154-Pound Champion?

Yes, but it will cease to be so once the fight with Canelo begins. Crawford won the WBA title when he defeated Israil Madrimov in August 2024, his first and only fight at 154 pounds. Few expected him to defend the belt because the fight served as an opportunity for Crawford, who began his career at 135 pounds, to stay busy while preparing to move to 168 pounds. The AMB recently announced that Crawford will be presented as the super welterweight champion for his fight with Canelo. However, he will relinquish the title once the bell rings, regardless of the outcome. Abass Baraou is the current interim WBA super welterweight champion and will be elevated to full champion once the bell rings for Canelo-Crawford, according to the WBA.

Has Canelo Gained Weight to Challenge a Champion?

In addition to the fight with Bivol at light heavyweight, Canelo stopped Sergey Kovalev in the eleventh round in 2019 to win the WBO light heavyweight belt and add a world title in a fourth division. However, Kovalev was clearly at the twilight of his career.

How Does Crawford’s Rise Differ From Canelo’s?

Crawford has never competed at 160 pounds, let alone 168 pounds. Crawford is also challenging the undisputed champion, rather than having a warm-up fight against another 168-pound fighter to acclimate to the weight class. The degree of difficulty for Crawford is much greater than what Canelo attempted when he moved up in weight.

Why Did Crawford Accept This Fight? What’s at Stake?

After defeating Spence, Crawford had no great fighters to face. He could have stayed at 147 pounds and defended his titles against Jaron “Boots” Ennis, but he would have been the hunted, not the hunter. He could also have sought to become undisputed at 154 pounds after defeating Madrimov, but the quality of the opposition was not there. Between the pound-for-pound status and the name recognition of Canelo, Crawford could earn significantly more fighting against Canelo. However, there is a significant risk with the reward. If he fails, Crawford will see his undefeated record disappear along with his status as one of the top three pound-for-pound fighters in the world.

Is This Really the Fight of the Century?

No. That honor belongs to the Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao fight in 2015. It’s also likely not the second biggest. Mayweather’s cross-boxing match with MMA superstar Conor McGregor in 2017 generated 4.3 million pay-per-view buys and grossed $600 million in total revenue. However, Canelo vs. Crawford may be a better fight than either of those matchups. Pacquiao was not the destructive force he once was and was outboxed by “Money” in a disappointing decision loss. The novelty of Mayweather-McGregor was more significant than the actual competition. Mayweather let the Irishman tire himself out for nine rounds before scoring a stoppage in the tenth round. Canelo-Crawford is expected to approach a full house with a crowd of 65,000 fans at Allegiant Stadium, which would surpass the previous boxing attendance record in Las Vegas, when 29,214 fans attended the 1982 fight between Larry Holmes and Gerry Cooney at the outdoor stadium specially built by Caesars Palace. The Canelo-Crawford audience could be larger, considering it is broadcast worldwide on Netflix, but it will not have a greater appeal than any of the events headlined by Mayweather.

Have Canelo or Crawford Fought in a Stadium?

This will be Canelo’s third fight in an NFL stadium, while Crawford will compete in an NFL stadium for the first time on the Las Vegas Raiders’ field. Canelo fought Liam Smith in 2016 and Billy Joe Saunders in 2021 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. He also defeated Ryder at Akron Stadium in Jalisco, Mexico, in 2023.

How Do We Expect the Fight to Unfold?

Neither Canelo nor Crawford have a high punch output, so the fight has the potential to be a chess match as both fighters choose their spots and stay out of danger. Canelo will almost certainly try to use his size to intimidate the smaller Crawford, while “Bud” will use his underestimated footwork, precise counterpunching, and speed to intercept the champion’s advances. This shouldn’t resemble Canelo’s fights with Scull or even Charlo at all. Scull refused to engage, and Charlo seemed to give up to cash his check. Crawford is a fighter first and will go out on his shield if necessary. Canelo has been known to navigate to a decision when the opponent doesn’t pose a threat to him (e.g., Berlanga, Munguia, Scull, Charlo), but it’s unlikely Crawford will go into survival mode at any point in the fight.

Is Canelo the Favorite to Win?

ESPN BET has the undisputed super middleweight champion as a -175 favorite over Crawford. Canelo hasn’t been a betting underdog since his second fight with Golovkin in 2018.

Will the Winner Be Considered the World’s Best Pound-for-Pound Boxer?

Not entirely. It only works for Crawford, who will become undisputed champion in an unprecedented third weight category if he defeats Canelo. Achieving the feat will almost certainly catapult Crawford to the top, currently held by undisputed heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk. If Crawford defeats Canelo, it will be almost blasphemous to keep him out of the top spot. Beating a smaller fighter like Crawford probably won’t propel Canelo to the top. Currently ranked No. 8 in ESPN’s pound-for-pound rankings, Canelo will certainly move up if he wins, but it probably won’t be enough to surpass Usyk, junior featherweight undisputed champion Naoya Inoue (No. 2) or even light heavyweight unified champion Bivol (No. 4).

Are There Other Fights I Should Pay Attention to on the Card?

WBC interim super middleweight champion and undefeated super middleweight Christian Mbilli (29-0, 24 KOs) will face the also undefeated 168-pound fighter Lester Martínez (19-0, 16 KOs) in what is expected to be an action-packed fight where the winner could find themselves in line to challenge the winner of the main event. Mbilli is currently ESPN’s number 2 super middleweight and is coming off a one-sided destruction of Maciej Sulecki in June. The Cameroonian-French boxer has been one to watch over the past year after obtaining four knockout victories in his last five fights.

Although the co-main event between super welterweights Callum Walsh (14-0, 11 KOs) and Fernando Vargas Jr. (17-0, 15 KOs) doesn’t have a world title on the line, it should be an entertaining fight between two fighters looking to make a statement. Walsh is advised by UFC CEO Dana White and has been a fixture on UFC Fight Pass throughout his career. He is also one of the key fighters competing for TKO Group’s Zuffa Boxing. He will face the son of former boxing star Fernando Vargas. Fernando Jr. is not as acclaimed as his younger brother Emiliano Vargas, but he will defend the family name.