Tsarukyan vs Hooker: Analysis and Predictions for UFC Fight Night

alofoke
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Tsarukyan vs. Hooker Headlines UFC Fight Night in Doha

Lightweights Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker will face off in the main event of UFC Fight Night at the ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar, this Saturday. The action will begin at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the prelims at 10 a.m. ET. Tsarukyan returns to the octagon after an injury that forced him to withdraw from a title opportunity at UFC 311 in January. He has won his last four fights. Hooker also comes with momentum, with a streak of three consecutive victories. In the co-main event, former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad will seek to return to title contention against the promising Ian Machado Garry. Muhammad lost the belt to Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 in May. Garry earned a unanimous decision victory over Carlos Prates in his last fight at a UFC Fight Night in April. MMA analysts and commentators offer their predictions for the main and co-main events, and Alofoke Deportes’ betting expert, Ian Parker, provides information on the value bets available on the card.

Lightweight Main Event

Tsarukyan vs Hooker: Analysis and Predictions for UFC Fight Night

I’m not sure Hooker can stop Tsarukyan’s takedowns. Tsarukyan will be the better wrestler there, but if Hooker can defend the takedown attempts, he will beat Tsarukyan, just as he beat Mateusz Gamrot. Gamrot beat Tsarukyan, but MMA math doesn’t work. I expect Tsarukyan to work for dominant positions on the ground better than Gamrot and win by decision.

Anthony Smith

Tsarukyan is going to dominate Hooker, frustrate him, and win by decision. Hooker is good enough not to be finished, but Tsarukyan will be on top of him the whole time. Out of a 25-minute fight, I think Hooker will be controlled on the mat for at least 18 minutes.

Din Thomas

Betting Analysis

Parker: Tsarukyan to win by the quick route. Tsarukyan is a near 5-to-1 favorite. Don’t be surprised if he wins by the quick route here. While Hooker is extremely tough and resilient, Tsarukyan has knockout power to go with his elite wrestling. I don’t think Hooker can last five rounds. Expect Tsarukyan to take Hooker down and finish the fight there.

Welterweight Co-Star Event

Tsarukyan vs Hooker: Analysis and Predictions for UFC Fight Night

I’m leaning towards Machado Garry here. Della Maddalena wrote the book on how to deal with Belal. Now, if Belal can get inside and take Machado Garry down, he can win this fight. But some of Belal’s wins aren’t aging very well. We were all very impressed when he beat Leon Edwards and Sean Brady, but those two just lost by knockout. And he lost to Della Maddalena, who was the new guy in the division.

Anthony Smith

It’s difficult, but I’m going with Belal because of his work ethic and determination. I think he wears down Machado Garry by approaching him and avoiding taking big hits. It will cost him to do it sometimes, but when he gets inside, he will control him and win by decision. I think Belal will win two of the three rounds.

Din Thomas

Betting Analysis

Parker: Muhammad to win (+220). This fight will come down to whether Muhammad can take the fight to the ground. I expect Muhammad’s wrestling and pace to take down Machado Garry and win at least two of the three rounds. When fighting from his back, Machado Garry offers no submission threats to Muhammad. If you want to take a safer route, consider the fight going the distance and put it in your parlay.

Parker’s Best Bets on the Rest of the Card

Light Heavyweight: Volkan Oezdemir vs. Alonzo Menifield Menifield to win (+190). Being an underdog of almost 2 to 1, I am betting on Menifield to pull off the upset. The fight would ideally stay standing and Menifield has the harder punches. Menifield has won his last two fights by decision, showing an evolution in his cardio and his ability to win in the later rounds, while Oezdemir has shown a decline in cardio in recent fights. If it goes past the first round, this favors Menifield. Men’s bantamweight: Bekzat Almakhan vs. Aleksandre Topuria Topuria to win (-125). Almakhan is coming off a first-round KO over Brad Katona, while Topuria, the brother of lightweight champion Ilia Topuria, recently won in his UFC debut. I like Topuria here because he has more ways to win. If Almakhan doesn’t take the first round, expect Topuria to use his boxing to close the distance and fight for the win.
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