The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies in the series has strengthened their aspirations to reach the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand came very close to reaching the top spot in the Test rankings, finishing just 0.086 points behind Australia, after their innings victory in Wellington on Monday. However, the news was accompanied by some confusion. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s predictive tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which raised doubts in the cricket community. This turned out to be an error, as the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia is in first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia could cement its lead if it wins the home series against India. On the other hand, the two wins over the West Indies gave New Zealand 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan later in their summer, they will finish with 420 points from five series. This will leave India needing to secure five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s. In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the qualification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. In other words, points per series played. Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a series of three Tests scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins both Test matches against Pakistan, they will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points at stake.
When India, which currently has 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series, or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories, or four victories and three draws, will leave them ahead of New Zealand.
As for the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or cede ground to New Zealand.
