New Zealand close to the final of the World Test Cricket Championship
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s.
New Zealand was a step away from reaching the top spot in the Test ranking: it is only 0.086 points behind Australia.
The victory in Wellington generated some initial confusion, as the ICC’s predictive tool showed New Zealand at the top for several hours. However, the ICC clarified that Australia maintains the first position with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia will look to consolidate its lead in the home series against India. For its part, New Zealand added 300 WTC points after the two victories over the West Indies, coming from four series in the current WTC cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.
If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will finish with 420 points from five series.
This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s.
In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh. However, due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC modified the classification criteria, switching from absolute points to a percentage of points played.
Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will maintain the lead with 74.17%. In case of a 1-2 loss, their percentage will drop to 70%. Australia also has a series of three Tests scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins its two Tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points at stake.
India, which currently has 360 points from four series played, will have played six series by the end of the series against Australia and England. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series, or 70% of the points played. Each remaining Test victory will be worth 30 points, and draws will earn them 10 points. Five victories, or four victories and three draws, will put them ahead of New Zealand.
Regarding the ranking, Australia could consolidate its leadership at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand, depending on the results of the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series.
