India vs Australia: WTC keys, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs. India: A Key Duel with Major Implications

The series between Australia and India, on its own, is a sporting event of great relevance. However, with the World Test Championship (WTC) final on the horizon in June, the encounter takes on even greater importance for both teams. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory over the West Indies positions them in third place in the championship table. If they repeat the result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.

India’s Perspectives

India has played 4 series, accumulating 360 points, with a points percentage of 75%. India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their count will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points, out of the 240 offered in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: if India wins five matches, or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).

Given India’s impressive home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England; this means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach the 150-point target.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will award 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four tests.

Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a points percentage of 82.22%. Australia needs to surpass 420 points to have a points percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia is in a strong position, thanks to the number of points it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.