The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies in the test series has strengthened their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be held at Lord’s in June 2021. New Zealand was very close to reaching the top spot in the test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington.
However, the news was accompanied by some confusion. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which generated doubts in the cricket community. The ICC clarified via a tweet that Australia occupies first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia could consolidate its leadership position if it wins the home series against India. For its part, New Zealand added 300 WTC points after four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan, they will finish with 420 points in five series. This means that India will need five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s. In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to obtain points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC had to change the classification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. That is, points per series played. Currently, Australia leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a series of three tests scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.When India completes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. It will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining wins in tests will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five wins or four wins and three draws would ensure they surpass New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series unfold, Australia could consolidate its lead at number 1 or cede ground to New Zealand.
