India vs Australia: WTC keys and the road to the final

Australia vs India: Keys to World Test Championship Qualification

The clash between Australia and India transcends simple competition, becoming a crucial event with significant implications for the upcoming World Test Championship (WTC) in June. The performance of both teams in this series, and in the subsequent India vs. England series, will largely define their path to qualification. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, places them in third place in the championship table. If New Zealand repeats this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will need to strive to maintain their position in the table.

Situation of India

India has participated in 4 series, accumulating 360 points, which represents 75% of points. India has two series remaining in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both series consist of four tests, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand. To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Given India’s impressive home record, they have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win or three draws in the four tests in Australia to reach the target of 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, scoring 296 points, which is equivalent to 82.22%. Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three tests, 40 points will be offered for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury problems, Australia remains in a solid position thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17%. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will boost them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory in the series against South Africa to stay above 70%.