India vs Australia: The Equations for the Cricket World Cup Final

Australia vs India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple match; it’s a high-stakes series. Furthermore, with the World Test Cricket Championship final on the horizon in June, both teams are vying for more than just victory, as the bigger picture is crucial. New Zealand’s 2-0 victory against the West Indies propels them to third place in the championship table. If they repeat that feat against Pakistan later in the season, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them in the standings.

The Situation in India

India has played four series, accumulating 360 points, which represents 75% of points. India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both are four-match series, which means the points allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand gets all the points from their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, and their points percentage will be 70%. This implies that India needs to exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points, out of the 240 at stake in these two series. This can happen in two ways: if India wins five matches, or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).

Given India’s strong home record, they will have a good chance of getting all the points against England; that will mean they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach that 150-point target.

Yes, for example, if India loses against Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will award 30 points and a draw 10, the only way they can reach 110 is if they win all four matches.

Australia’s Position

Australia has played three series, accumulating 296 points, with a points percentage of 82.22%. Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage above 70%, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three tests, there will be 40 points at stake for a win and 13 for a draw. Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia is still in a strong position, thanks to the points tally they have already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series win against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, and just beyond New Zealand’s reach. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.