LeBron James: 4 Scenarios for His Historic Season 23 in the NBA

King LeBron: The Beginning of the End or Overtime?

The only signs of LeBron James’ presence in the Lakers’ locker room before the preseason game in Palm Desert, California, were his gold number 23 uniform and a triangular cushion on his seat. The jersey would not be worn that night, but the cushion would. Of the 42 players on the Lakers and Phoenix Suns training rosters, 22 were born in the 2000s and 19 in the 1990s. Only one, James, was born in 1984, five months before Suns coach Jordan Ott. At 40 years old, James did not play in the exhibition game due to a gluteal nerve irritation, according to Lakers coach JJ Redick. However, the cushion fulfilled its function, both in the locker room and during the game on the bench. When James finally appeared in the locker room, with a t-shirt that said “Forever King”, he was asked if he was ready for an unprecedented 23rd season. Before he could answer, Austin Reaves intervened.

“You have five more seasons left,” Reaves said.

Austin Reaves

James smiled. “Why not six or seven, get to 30?”, a journalist asked. “Yes, set a record!”, Reaves added. James responded with a smile: “I already set a record”. Of the approximately 5,000 players who have played in the NBA, James is the only one who has remained for 23 seasons. In addition, he has scored more regular season points (42,184), more playoff points (8,289) and has been selected for more All-Star Games (21) than anyone in league history. His achievements, including four MVP awards, four championships, and four Finals MVPs, are well documented. Now, the question is whether time is running out or if James will seek an extension. James, who is starting his eighth season with the Lakers, is playing on an expiring contract for the first time after exercising his $52.6 million option for the 2025-26 season in June without negotiating an extension. In the Lakers’ Media Day, the first question was about his retirement.

“I don’t know,” James said. “I’m excited to play the game I love for another season. And however the journey is this year, I’m all in. Because, as you said, I don’t know when the end is, but I know it’s a lot sooner than later.”

LeBron James

The Lakers, who will be without James for the next three to four weeks due to sciatica, are coming off a season in which they signed Luka Doncic and secured third place in the competitive Western Conference, but fell to the Timberwolves in five games. After James exercised his contract option, his agent, Rich Paul, issued a statement suggesting that James might end his career elsewhere.

“LeBron wants to compete for a championship. He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands, but he values a realistic opportunity to win it all… We want to evaluate what is best for LeBron at this stage of his life and career.”

Rich Paul

Considering that James has had total control of his career for 22 years, what is best and what is realistic could be in conflict. Here are four possible scenarios for this unprecedented season for James and the Lakers.

Retire as a Laker after the 2025-26 season

James’ time with the Lakers has been marked by injuries, missing 124 games in seven seasons. Despite this, there have been many successes. The Lakers won a championship in 2020, and James became the first player to win Finals MVP for three different teams. In 2023, James surpassed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. In 2024, the Lakers drafted Bronny, allowing James to fulfill his wish of playing with his son. The Warriors inquired about James, but the Lakers were not interested. James expressed his commitment to the franchise: “I am a Laker, and I have been very happy being a Laker for the last six years and I hope it continues like this.” The Lakers’ president of basketball operations, Rob Pelinka, made the franchise’s desire clear: “We would love for LeBron’s story to be that he retired as a Laker.” If James has more basketball in him, he could help the Lakers build a competitive team. The Lakers can trade their 2031 or 2032 first-round picks and have the right to swap picks in five seasons, but they might be reluctant to use those assets if James is nearing his exit. Some signs to consider are Nike’s “Forever King” advertisement and the Cavaliers’ “Classic Edition” uniform. In addition, the Lakers played their first and last home game against the Warriors, and James posted a video on his Instagram account with the song “It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over”, which could suggest the end.

Re-sign with the Lakers

Pelinka’s response about James’ retirement was revealing because he answered a different question. The question was whether the Lakers would be interested in re-signing James in the summer of 2026. The Lakers could have about $50 million in salary cap space, which James could occupy if he sought a new maximum contract. James could sign a contract of up to three years for $188 million, with a starting salary of $58.1 million for 2026-27. Although James has exceeded expectations, there is doubt about how his timeline syncs with the other two best players on the team, both in their twenties. Doncic and Reaves enjoy playing with James and want the partnership to continue. Doncic, who idolized James, has enjoyed their partnership and believes James is vital for the Lakers to win now. If the Lakers win the championship this season, would he see that as a perfect ending, or would he want to defend it again and equal Michael Jordan with six?

Requesting a transfer or termination in January or February 2026

James’s ultimate priority is to win. If the Lakers struggle, James could decide to leave. As James has a no-trade clause in his contract, any deal would need his approval. Viable destinations are limited. Cleveland would need to send nearly $90 million in salaries to make a trade, and the deal would have to involve several teams. The Warriors and Knicks also couldn’t sign James in that scenario. The Mavericks would also need to send a large amount of money to make a deal. Dallas is currently a team with salary limitations, and would need to trade $12 million in salary without receiving anything in return.

Signing with another team as a free agent

There are 10 teams that could have significant cap space in the summer of 2026, including the Nets, Clippers, and Bulls. However, it would be a big life change for James to leave Southern California. In addition, James will be in a group of free agents that potentially includes other stars like Kevin Durant, Trae Young, and James Harden, as well as impact players like Reaves, Draymond Green, Bradley Beal, Norman Powell, and Coby White, so it’s not certain that he will receive a lot of interest across the league. James’ situation remains undecided. The fate of his 23rd season is uncertain, and it is also uncertain whether his body will make the decision for him.

“Everyone is trying to dictate when it ends and the reality is that no one knows,” said a source close to James.

Source close to LeBron James

James, for his part, does not worry about the future: “I don’t worry about yesterday and I don’t try to focus on what the future holds. It’s about being present… I don’t know when the end is, but I know it’s not as far away as ‘The Godfather 2’. So I know I have to be present.”