The NHL preseason is coming to an end, and the regular season is approaching on October 7th. In light of what happened in the 2023-24 season, there are many possibilities of regression in several prominent players. Players like Auston Matthews, Sam Reinhart, Jonathan Marchessault, Zach Hyman, and the Vancouver Canucks experienced a significant regression compared to the previous season. However, this does not imply that they cannot recover in the next season.
Candidates for Regression
Players most likely to suffer a 10% or greater decrease in their production, whether in goals or points, are those in specific situations. Shooting percentage is the most important regression factor; many players on this list exceeded their expectations. Other factors include changes in the team environment and more difficult matchups.Morgan Geekie
Left Wing, Boston Bruins Before last season, Morgan Geekie’s career-high shooting percentage was 13%. His shooting percentage in 2024-25? Twenty-two percent! While playing on Boston’s top line, this translated into a total of 33 goals, nearly doubling his previous personal record of 17. This is unlikely to occur in consecutive seasons. Geekie’s goal production soared, his role increased with the Bruins, and his offensive zone starts increased from 12.1% to 19.1%. According to MoneyPuck, his on-ice goal percentage at 5-on-5 was 58% against an expected percentage of 52.7%. Given the Bruins’ situation, it’s reasonable to expect those numbers to regress as well. If Geekie continues to play on the top line, it is reasonable to expect his goal total to be in line with a complementary player on a top line, playing with an elite scorer (David Pastrnak). That is, Geekie is more likely to total between 22 and 26 goals than to reach 30 again. Will continue to be a key player for the Bruins, getting those minutes on the top line, but with that come more difficult matchups. There’s nowhere to hide when you play on the top line, he’ll have less time and space to maneuver, and it’s fair to expect a drop in goal production.Mark ScheifeleCenter, Winnipeg Jets Scheifele’s 2024-25 season was incredible, with 39 goals and 87 points. During the campaigns in which he scored 38, 39, and 42 goals, his shooting percentage was around 20%, which is three percentage points higher than his career shooting percentage. He also scored more than 10 power-play goals in each of those seasons, which is probably where the regression will come from. Last season, Scheifele had a personal record in power-play points, with 25, and although he should score around 20 again, the loss of Nikolaj Ehlers on the top power play will impact a power play that was ranked as the best in the NHL. It is unlikely that the Jets will repeat a 29% success rate on the power play if Ehlers had been retained; it becomes less likely without him. A regression in power-play success combined with an expected regression in shooting percentage should see Scheifele score around 30 goals and 77 points. While that’s still the production of a top-line center, a regression of more than 10% and nearly 25% in goal scoring would be a step back after a tremendous 2024-2025.Aliaksei ProtasLeft Wing, Washington Capitals Many Capitals players had surprising statistical seasons in 2024-2025, perhaps none more so than Protas. The 6-6, 247-pound forward had a breakout season last year, more than doubling his previous season’s point total and scoring 30 goals, after a previous career high of six! Protas’s highest career shooting percentage was 8.8%… until last season, when it jumped to 21.1%. According to MoneyPuck, he scored 8.3 goals above expected in all situations. There is no doubt that his shot improved dramatically, but shooting at 21% is not sustainable. The best shooter in the history of the sport, his teammate Alex Ovechkin, shot at 18.6% last season. With that statistic alone, he can expect a significant regression. If Protas is a real 11-12% shooter, a more plausible goal production for him would be around 20 goals, 33% less than last season’s mark. In addition to this, Protas scored zero power-play goals, and as long as Ovechkin is playing, the 24-year-old is unlikely to get many power-play shooting opportunities. To be fair, nobody on the Caps does. Protas is tremendously talented and surprised many teams last season. That won’t be the case this season, and he will face tougher matchups, as teams will be more aware of him as a scoring threat. He is more likely to be a 55-60 point power forward than a player with more than 65 points.Brandon Hagel
Left wing, Tampa Bay Lightning Hagel’s profile rose an order of magnitude higher after his performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off, despite having three consecutive seasons of quality offensive production in Tampa Bay. It’s a threat to the Lightning and a short-term threat, scoring seven points on the penalty kill last season, which represents almost half of his career production while shorthanded (16). While Hagel is one of the league’s most dangerous penalty killers, he is unlikely to have a repeat of the offensive production while shorthanded. A 90-point season raised many eyebrows in the NHL, but Hagel’s shooting percentage was a relatively sustainable 15.4%. Hagel is slated to play on the second line with Anthony Cirelli, another excellent two-way player. While he’s still likely to be near a point-per-game pace, Hagel is unlikely to score 90 points playing in that role, without significant time skating on a line with Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. His true talent is more indicative of a 75-80 point player, which is elite for a second-line player, but a drop of nearly 15% in production should be expected.Mark Stone
Right wing, Vegas Golden Knights One of the best two-way wingers in the NHL has some things working against him this season. First of all, he has played more than 60 games only three times in the last 10 seasons. Yes, COVID-19 existed, but no one who follows the NHL is going to argue that Mark Stone’s health is something to rely on. He was unusually healthy last season and yet managed to play in only 66 of the 82 games, scoring 67 points. Stone is 33 years old and has dealt with more than his share of back injuries; those don’t disappear with age. In addition to that, Stone has rightfully lost his place alongside Jack Eichel because, in case you haven’t heard, Mitch Marner is now with the Golden Knights. That will diminish Stone’s opportunity alongside one of the past centers in the NHL, although Stone should still have opportunities on the top power-play unit. Regression comes down to Stone’s injury history, a diminished role on the second line, and Eichel’s drop to William Karlsson being significant enough to warrant a 10% drop in even-strength offensive production. When considering all those factors, it’s hard to see Stone having a second consecutive 65+ point season. However, if he stays healthy and plays 82 games for the first time in his career, he’s projected to have 68 points.Matt Duchene
C, Dallas Stars Duchene is expected to be the third-line center for the Stars this season, and I can’t think of a single third-line center who would score 82 points. He should still get power-play time, but a third-line role behind Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston will limit his ice time and offensive opportunities. On top of that, Duchene shot 19.7% last season, the second-highest mark of his career, which has a career shooting percentage of 13.6%. With diminishing opportunities, Duchene is not guaranteed to get 150 shots this season. Combined with the expected regression in his shooting percentage, his projection of 21 goals and 40 assists is excellent for a third-line player, but a drop from the point-per-game season he wrote in 2024-2025. Age is also not in Duchene’s favor. Given the age curves, it would not be surprising to see his production fall by more than 20%, regardless of ice time or offensive opportunity afforded to him. The 34-year-old is very talented; however, Father Time catches up to everyone, it seems, except Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. Will be one of the best players in the bottom six of the NHL, but it’s hard to imagine how he matches last season’s production.
