New Zealand’s resounding victory over the West Indies gives them a strong chance of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s.
New Zealand was very close to first place in the Test rankings, being only 0.086 points behind Australia after their triumph in Wellington.
However, the news was not without some uncertainty. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, generating confusion in the cricket community. Finally, the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia was leading with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand had 116.375. The prediction tool subsequently reflected this ranking.
Australia could consolidate their advantage if they win the series at home against India, but the two victories over the West Indies led New Zealand to add 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later on, they will finish with 420 points from five series.
This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final to be played at Lord’s.
In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the classification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. In other words, points per series played.
Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a three-Test series scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins its two Tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points at stake.
When India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will allow them to surpass New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could increase its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
