India vs Australia: WTC Equations, How many wins does India need?

Australia vs India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting event; it stands as a series of great magnitude with significant consequences, especially in the context of the World Test Championship final in June. The performance of both teams in this series is fundamental, as it directly influences their position in the rankings. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate this result against Pakistan in the current season, both Australia and India will find themselves needing to strive to maintain their position. We analyze the impact of this series and the one India will play at home against England, on their qualification aspirations.

India

Series played: 4, Points: 360, Percentage of points: 75 India has two series remaining in the current cycle, against Australia and England. Both consist of four tests, which implies the same point allocation: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand scores all points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a points percentage of 70%. This sets 70% as the target India must surpass to stay ahead of New Zealand.

To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches, or by winning four (120) and drawing three (30).

Considering India’s outstanding home record, they have a good opportunity to get the maximum points against England; this would imply that they would need at least one victory, or three draws, in the four tests in Australia to reach that target of 150 points.

Yes, for example, if India loses against Australia with a score of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.

Australia

Series played: 3, Points: 296, Percentage of points: 82.22 Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage above 70%, in case the series against South Africa is played. If that series is canceled, their goal will be to exceed 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to consist of three tests, 40 points will be awarded for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position, thanks to the number of points it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand’s reach. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 series verdict against South Africa to stay above 70%.