Mets in Crisis: Analysis of Free Fall and Playoff Hopes

Although it wasn’t the most impactful hit in Pete Alonso’s career, his three-run home run in the tenth inning on Sunday was crucial for the New York Mets, especially after nine difficult games. It could be the defining moment of the season.

He extended his season in 2024. He could have saved his season in 2025.

Ron Darling, Mets commentator

The Mets, who had lost eight consecutive games, achieved a vital victory on Sunday with a score of 5-2. The situation was complicated, with the Philadelphia Phillies excelling in the National League East Division, where the Mets previously led. Furthermore, the lead for the last wild card spot had been reduced to only half a game over the San Francisco Giants. The Mets’ fanbase, accustomed to moments of tension, such as the loss of a seven-game lead in 2007, was suffering. The eight-game losing streak included two against the Cincinnati Reds and four consecutive losses against the Phillies, including a 1-0 defeat and another after leading 4-0 in the first inning. In addition, they lost to Jacob deGrom in his return to Citi Field and then suffered a painful defeat on Saturday, losing a 2-0 lead in the last two innings against the Rangers. Juan Soto, despite the situation, maintained an optimistic attitude, but the reality was harsh. The Mets, with a payroll of $340 million, the second highest in baseball, had had a disappointing performance since mid-June. Let’s analyze the key factors: starting pitching, the bullpen, and the offense.

1. Starting Pitching

The starting pitching performance has notably declined.

• Through June 12: 2.79 ERA (first in the majors)
• Since June 12: 5.09 ERA (24th)

The situation led the Mets to include three rookies in their rotation: Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, and Brandon Sproat. McLean has performed remarkably, with a 4-1 record and an ERA of 1.19 in his six starts. Sproat has also shown potential, while Tong has struggled. Despite the young talents, the Mets cannot rely solely on them. Pitchers like David Peterson and Clay Holmes have shown less effective performance, and Sean Manaea was relegated to the bullpen. In short, despite the good performance of some, the current rotation does not seem to be at a championship level.

2. The Bullpen

The bullpen has performed even worse.

• Through June 12: 2.82 ERA (second in the majors)
• Since June 12: 5.04 ERA (26th)

Despite the good initial performance of the starters, the bullpen has been overloaded. The acquisition of Ryan Helsley, coming from the St. Louis Cardinals, has not worked as expected, with a losing record and a high ERA. The bullpen, with Brooks Raley, Tyler Rogers, and Edwin Díaz, has struggled, including blown saves. The current bullpen situation does not look promising for a team with championship aspirations.

3. The Offensive

The offensive has been inconsistent.

• Through June 12: .248/.332/.427, 4.6 runs per game
• Since June 12: .250/.323/.425, 4.8 runs per game

During the losing streak, the offense batted .211 and scored few runs. The lack of consistency, with moments when Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Pete Alonso haven’t performed at the same time, has affected the team. Despite being 11th in runs scored, the offense hasn’t shown the expected level. The Giants lost on Sunday, which reduced the Mets’ wild card lead to 1.5 games. The Mets also have the tiebreaker against the Giants, which means San Francisco needs a better record to advance to October. After Sunday’s dramatic victory, relief was felt in the team and among the fans. With 12 games remaining, the Mets will seek to prove their worth in the postseason.