NHL Ranking: Draft Strategy with Tiers for Forwards

Deep Dive: Key Strategies for the Ice Hockey Draft

What do Steven Stamkos, Fabian Zetterlund, Mark Stone, Tyler Toffoli, Jake DeBrusk, Kiefer Sherwood, Nikolaj Ehlers, Ryan O’Reilly, and Morgan Geekie have in common? You might not have the answer at your fingertips, but the key lies in last season’s performance and how this can influence your draft strategy.

Contents

Deep Dive: Key Strategies for the Ice Hockey Draft Fantasy Hockey Draft Player Tiers

During the past season, these players, relevant for fantasy hockey, finished with a minimal difference in total points, similar to a power-play goal. Nine players, almost interchangeable in terms of production. Could you have grouped them on the same level before the draft? Probably not. Herein lies the importance of structuring your rankings by tiers: identifying where the drop-offs occur will help you avoid impulsive decisions when your top options disappear.

Imagine arriving at the draft with a linear list. You would be in trouble when your targets run out. Without tiers, your “plan B” would be a hasty choice. Tiers transform chaos into clarity, grouping players of similar performance. When the first player of a tier is selected, you move on with confidence, knowing that all options are equally valid. In this way, a good strategist turns a list into a strategy.

To delve deeper into how to create your own tiered list, you can consult the defense tiered list. The rankings shown here may differ from those you find in ESPN Fantasy Hockey games, as the latter are based on internal rankings.

Note: Points are based on ESPN’s standard scoring system.

Fantasy Hockey Draft Player Tiers

Level 1: The Undisputed

Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 260.5, last season: 174.1)
Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 253.7, last season: 231.6)
Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 245.9, last season: 199.6)
Leon Draisaitl, C, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 232.9, last season: 214.2)

Notes: The only discussion here is whether Draisaitl should be in this group or in Tier 2. If we remember the 2018-19 season, this group of forwards has appeared in the top 10 fantasy forwards at least five times each in the last seven seasons. Nobody else has more than four appearances.

Level 2: Still Practically Undisputed

David Pastrnak, W, Boston Bruins: (projected: 224.3, last season: 210.2)
Sam Reinhart, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 218.5, last season: 200.5)
Nikita Kucherov, W, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 208.6, last season: 226.4)
Kirill Kaprizov, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 205.9, last season: 112.6)

Notes: The first pinch of controversy is having Kucherov in Tier 2. He is at least two years older than everyone else in these upper tiers and will be close to 33 at the end of the season. That doesn’t yet mean an abrupt decline, but it could be argued that he is no longer in his prime. ESPN Fantasy Hockey is the fun and free way to immerse yourself in the game! Sign up today!

Level 3: This is where debate will happen

Dylan Guenther, W, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 198.2, last season: 148.4)
Elias Pettersson, C, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 197.8, last season: 124.7)
Brady Tkachuk, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 195.7, last season: 162.3)
J.T. Miller, W, New York Rangers: (projected: 195.4, last season: 160.4)
Brayden Point, C, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 193.3, last season: 183.4)

Notes: Let’s start with the inclusion of Guenther and Pettersson in the top 10 forwards. You can decide to lower them several levels in your own rankings, but that’s how the projections are. Pettersson is more understandable, as even this projection is below his four-year fantasy peak and not even much higher than his four-year average; it’s about whether you believe last season’s locker room drama was what really held him back.

With Guenther, everything is based on faith in what were phenomenal underlying numbers from a 21-year-old player with nothing but space to forge his own role at the top of an improved (possibly playoff-contending) roster. Apart from Guenther and Pettersson, the rest of these first twelve are a step behind the top two levels.

Level 4: Still worthy of a top fantasy line

Nick Suzuki, C, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 190.6, last season: 192.5)
Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 190.3, last season: 149.5)
William Nylander, W, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 189.9, last season: 184.3)
Mikko Rantanen, W, Dallas Stars: (projected: 189.4, last season: 181.0)
Kyle Connor, W, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 188.3, last season: 204.8)
Tim Stutzle, C, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 187.8, last season: 171.0)
Jason Robertson, W, Dallas Stars: (projected: 187.4, last season: 174.0)
Brandon Hagel, W, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 186.3, last season: 192.6)
Wyatt Johnston, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 186.2, last season: 166.2)
Tage Thompson, C, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 185.9, last season: 170.6)
Jack Eichel, C, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 185.7, last season: 192.9)
Seth Jarvis, C, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 185.3, last season: 167.1)
Dylan Holloway, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 183.8, last season: 154.7)
Sidney Crosby, C, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 181.5, last season: 186.3)
Alex Tuch, W, Buffalo Sabres: (projected: 180.5, last season: 196.4)
Nico Hischier, C, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 177.5, last season: 172.5)
Mitch Marner, W, Vegas Golden Knights: (projected: 176.9, last season: 188.7)
Artemi Panarin, W, New York Rangers: (projected: 176.5, last season: 169.0)
Robert Thomas, C, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 176.2, last season: 151.8)
Macklin Celebrini, C, San Jose Sharks: (projected: 176.1, last season: 152.8)
Alex Ovechkin, W, Washington Capitals: (projected: 175.7, last season: 169.2)

Notes: Largest group here, but only a 15-point difference from top to bottom, so it really comes down to how you want to split it. Hughes, Rantanen, and Connor have the potential to be in the top 10, and yes, I know that most rankings place two of them where I have placed Guenther and Pettersson. Risky? Absolutely. Holloway is another curveball, although he showed real potential with the Blues: 2.95 fantasy points per game in 15 games from February 27 to March 27, or 2.60 FPPG in 20 games from late November to January. In 12-team leagues, the goal is to have at least three forwards at this point and this year, that’s more feasible than usual, with a deeper group of names that don’t make me wrinkle my nose.

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Level 5: Endgames

Jake Guentzel, C, Tampa Bay Lightning: (projected: 173.3, last season: 186.0)
Martin Necas, C, Colorado Avalanche: (projected: 172.4, last season: 165.7)
Aleksander Barkov, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 171.3, last season: 157.5)
Vincent Trocheck, C, New York Rangers: (projected: 170.7, last season: 175.0)
Jesper Bratt, W, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 170.3, last season: 176.6)
Filip Forsberg, W, Nashville Predators: (projected: 169.6, last season: 189.0)
Clayton Keller, W, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 169.3, last season: 176.3)
JJ Peterka, W, Utah Mammoth: (projected: 168.6, last season: 132.3)
Connor Bedard, C, Chicago Blackhawks: (projected: 168.6, last season: 147.2)
Dylan Strome, C, Washington Capitals: (projected: 167.5, last season: 172.2)
Lucas Raymond, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 166.3, last season: 166.4)
Sebastian Aho, C, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 165.7, last season: 159.6)

Notes: This group still has a lot of bankable talent, led by Finnish stars Barkov and Aho. The enthusiasm for Bedard may be waning a bit in fantasy circles, but he still has many important seasons ahead to find the next gear, and last year he recorded the sixth-best fantasy season since 2009-10 for any player his age or younger. Beyond him, Peterka, Guentzel, and Forsberg offer a combination of potential and proven production, making this level a solid group of contributors, even if none of them are entering the top tiers.

Level 6: Candidates for recovery

Alex DeBrincat, W, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 165.4, last season: 170.2)
Steven Stamkos, C, Nashville Predators: (projected: 164.9, last season: 136.5)
Adrian Kempe, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 164.5, last season: 169.0)
Gabriel Vilardi, C, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 163.6, last season: 140.6)
Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg Jets: (projected: 162.8, last season: 193.8)
Cole Caufield, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 162.5, last season: 161.4)
Travis Konecny, W, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 161.9, last season: 159.2)
Kirill Marchenko, W, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 161.6, last season: 159.7)
Joel Eriksson Ek, C, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 161.5, last season: 88.2)
Mika Zibanejad, C, New York Rangers: (projected: 161.3, last season: 140.1)
John Tavares, C, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 161.1, last season: 173.5)
Timo Meier, W, New Jersey Devils: (projected: 160.3, last season: 155.5)
Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken: (projected: 159.9, last season: 124.9)

Notes: Stamkos and Zibanejad have a clear pattern for recovery: Tavares was the model last season. After recording the lowest points-per-game total of his career in 2023-24 since his rookie season, he returned to score the second-highest goal total of his career in 2024-25. Stamkos’ first season out of Tampa was tough, and Zibanejad has been declining offensively, but both still have solid supporting casts and time to turn things around. With Kempe, Konecny, Marchenko, and Beniers, 30 of the 32 NHL teams now have at least one forward represented so far. Did you get this far? Create your own league with your own rules and play against your friends today.

Level 7: Abundance of Potential

Juraj Slafkovsky, W, Montreal Canadiens: (projected: 159.0, last season: 137.7)
Matthew Tkachuk, W, Florida Panthers: (projected: 157.6, last season: 120.5)
Dylan Larkin, C, Detroit Red Wings: (projected: 156.6, last season: 157.7)
Carter Verhaeghe, C, Florida Panthers: (projected: 155.0, last season: 128.7)
Matt Boldy, W, Minnesota Wild: (projected: 154.6, last season: 177.2)
Adam Fantilli, C, Columbus Blue Jackets: (projected: 154.0, last season: 147.4)
Matvei Michkov, W, Philadelphia Flyers: (projected: 154.0, last season: 131.8)
Bo Horvat, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 153.6, last season: 143.8)
Jordan Kyrou, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 152.9, last season: 161.4)
Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 152.8, last season: 145.8)
Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders: (projected: 152.8, last season: 50.2)
Fabian Zetterlund, W, Ottawa Senators: (projected: 152.1, last season: 137.5)
Brock Boeser, W, Vancouver Canucks: (projected: 151.8, last season: 124.1)
Matthew Knies, W, Toronto Maple Leafs: (projected: 151.6, last season: 148.8)
Nikolaj Ehlers, W, Carolina Hurricanes: (projected: 151.5, last season: 135.7)
Zach Hyman, W, Edmonton Oilers: (projected: 151.1, last season: 115.6)
Roope Hintz, C, Dallas Stars: (projected: 150.5, last season: 150.3)
Morgan Geekie, C, Boston Bruins: (projected: 149.8, last season: 134.9)
Jake Neighbours, W, St. Louis Blues: (projected: 149.7, last season: 131.6)
Quinton Byfield, W, Los Angeles Kings: (projected: 149.4, last season: 121.4)
Rickard Rakell, W, Pittsburgh Penguins: (projected: 147.3, last season: 184.8)

Notes: This tier is brimming with potential. From Slafkovsky and Fantilli to Michkov and Byfield, and even a veteran like Ehlers in his first season outside of Winnipeg, fantasy superstars are likely hiding here. At this stage of the draft, you should have two full forward lines, so high-potential options are important. Sometimes, choosing safety is best. If you’ve already taken a couple of risks before (like, for example, putting Guenther in the top 10), aiming for Larkin, Kyrou, or Kopitar here makes sense. Tkachuk’s projection takes into account the expectation that he will miss a significant portion of the 2025-26 season. With Horvat, 31 of the 32 NHL teams are now represented among the forwards.