The US Open 2025: Analysis and Favorites
The last and most vibrant Grand Slam tennis tournament of the season is about to begin. The US Open 2025 promises strong emotions and great stories from the very beginning. Here’s a detailed analysis of the key players and potential surprises that could define the tournament. Assuming Jannik Sinner has recovered from the illness that forced him to withdraw in the Cincinnati final against Carlos Alcaraz, attention is focused on these two young talents, who are the main favorites to star in their third consecutive Grand Slam final. In the women’s division, Aryna Sabalenka, with an impressive 67-13 record this season, will seek to overcome the obstacles of the final rounds of the previous three Slams. To achieve this, she will have to face the formidable Iga Swiatek, who has won 14 of her last 15 matches, as well as Coco Gauff, who defeated her in the Roland Garros final, and other competitors from an increasingly competitive women’s circuit. But at the US Open, surprises are commonplace. Expectations can be dashed, as happened to legends seeking to complete the calendar Grand Slam, such as Serena Williams in 2015 and Novak Djokovic in 2021. On the other hand, the tournament can be the springboard for emerging talents like Naomi Osaka in 2018, Bianca Andreescu in 2019, and Emma Raducanu in 2021. The action begins from the first round, with exciting matchups. In the men’s bracket, matches like Alcaraz against veteran Reilly Opelka, Djokovic against young American Learner Tien, and Lorenzo Musetti against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard stand out. In the women’s bracket, Venus Williams will face Karolina Muchova, Victoria Mboko against Barbora Krejcikova, and Petra Kvitova against Diane Parry. Regardless of what the tournament holds, let’s analyze the players with the most chances of leaving their mark on the US Open 2025.Favorites
Jannik Sinner
ESPN BET Odds: +115 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 44.4%First potential top-10 rival: No. 5 Jack Draper or No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti (quarterfinals) In the last year, the 24-year-old Italian has a record of 56-5, with a 1-4 against Alcaraz (including the withdrawal in Cincinnati) and an impressive 55-1 against the rest. Standing at 1.90 meters tall and with amazing speed, Sinner can cover the court in milliseconds. His groundstrokes are so precise that he sometimes seems to achieve accidental winners from neutral situations. Although his path will not be easy and he might be regaining his best form, Sinner might not need to give his best until a possible semi-final rematch against Draper.
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Carlos Alcaraz
ESPN BET Odds: +155 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 34.8%Potential first top-10 opponent: No. 6 Ben Shelton (quarterfinals) The combined odds of Sinner and Alcaraz, according to Tennis Abstract, are 79%, while the remaining 126 men have 21%. Alcaraz’s path presents interesting challenges, such as Opelka in the first round, and possibly Daniil Medvedev in the fourth and Shelton in the quarterfinals. However, with 39 wins in his last 41 matches and seven consecutive finals, Alcaraz starts with an advantage. Both players have notably distanced themselves from the rest of the circuit.Iga Swiatek
ESPN BET Odds: +270 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 25.7%First potential top-10 rival: No. 8 Amanda Anisimova (quarterfinals) After a season start that, although it did not meet its own standards, the Polish player has shown her ability to resurge. Swiatek arrives at the US Open after winning 28 of her last 31 sets, and if she wins the tournament and Sabalenka loses before the quarterfinals, she could regain the world number 1 ranking, a position she held for much of 2022, 2023 and 2024.Aryna Sabalenka
ESPN BET Odds: +280 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 25.1%First potential top-10 rival: No. 7 Jasmine Paolini or No. 9 Elena Rybakina (quarterfinals) The current US Open champion was the favorite before the draw, but her odds decreased after a path that could include Leylah Fernandez in the third round, Clara Tauson in the fourth, and Rybakina in the quarterfinals. Sabalenka is one of the most consistent players, with 10 semifinal appearances in her last 11 Slams, but defending the title in New York will not be easy.Coco Gauff
ESPN BET Odds: +750 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 9.6%Potential first top-10 opponent: No. 6 Madison Keys (quarterfinals) The 2025 season has been a rollercoaster for Gauff, who had a shaky start, but then shone in the clay season with three finals and her first title at Roland Garros. However, since then, she has lost matches. Her serve has been inconsistent, and she has made changes to her coaching staff. Although her draw is complicated, improving her serve could make her a contender.Former champions in wrestling
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Novak Djokovic
ESPN BET Odds: +1200 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 4.5%First potential top-10 rival: No. 4 Taylor Fritz (quarterfinals) The all-time Grand Slam champion has become a player focused on the big tournaments. His two previous tournaments were Roland Garros and Wimbledon, where he reached the semi-finals. He could be the favorite to win his fourth, which is full of Americans, and unlike other tournaments, he is not on Sinner’s side of the bracket. Djokovic has nothing to prove, but another final would not be out of the question if he manages to recover.Naomi Osaka
ESPN BET Odds: +1600 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.8%Potential first top-10 opponent: No. 3 Gauff (fourth round) The two-time US Open champion reached the final in Montreal this summer, her first 1000-level final since Miami 2022. She has a 27-12 record on the year, seems to have recovered a high-level return game and, at 23rd, is seeded in a Slam for the first time in almost four years. She will be the favorite in every match until a possible encounter with Gauff.Daniil Medvedev
ESPN BET Odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.4%First potential top-10 rival: No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz (fourth round) From the 2019 US Open to the 2024 Australian Open, Medvedev reached the final in 6 of 10 hard-court Slams, winning the 2021 US Open. However, he has struggled in 2025, with a 1-3 record in Slams and spending most of his recent months outside the ATP top 10. Could the magic return in New York?Emma Raducanu
ESPN BET Odds: +4000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.7%First potential top-10 rival: No. 9 Elena Rybakina (second round) Injuries and expectations have affected Raducanu since her US Open triumph in 2021, but the sensations are improving. She has climbed to 35th in the WTA rankings, her best position since 2022. She might have to beat both Rybakina and Paolini just to have a rematch with Sabalenka in the quarterfinals.Venus Williams
ESPN BET Odds: +50000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: <0.1%
Potential first top-10 opponent: No. 6 Madison Keys (fourth round) Her two US Open titles (2000, 2001) predate many of the women in the tournament. However, the 45-year-old player proved her worth in Washington in July and will face Muchova in what could be the most outstanding match of the first round. Others: Marin Cilic (2014 champion, +20000)Players Who Also Love New York
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Madison Keys
ESPN BET Odds: +1800 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 3.9%First potential top-10 rival: No. 3 Gauff (quarterfinals) At 30 years old, Keys is enjoying her best season since 2016. However, her draw is quite solid until at least the fourth round.Ben Shelton
ESPN BET Odds: +2000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 1.8%First potential top-10 rival: No. 2 Alcaraz (quarterfinals) Shelton has risen to number 6 in the ATP ranking. Reaching the quarterfinals was unfortunate, but he will be the favorite in each of his first four matches.Alexander Zverev
ESPN BET Odds: +2200 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 6.0%
First potential top-10 rival: No. 8 Alex De Minaur or No. 9 Karen Khachanov (quarterfinals) The 2020 finalist is consistent enough with his serve and his capabilities to become a reasonably surprise-proof player. He will not face a top 10 opponent until the quarter-finals at the earliest.Jessica Pegula
ESPN BET Odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 3.0%Potential first top-10 opponent: No. 5 Mirra Andreeva or No. 10 Emma Navarro (quarterfinals) It has been a strange year for the 31-year-old player. Her draw is manageable, but her form? Doubtful.Taylor Fritz
ESPN BET Odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 2.6%First potential top-10 rival: No. 7 Djokovic (quarterfinals) Like many others in the men’s draw, Fritz has run into the ceiling of Sinner and Alcaraz. He still serves as well as anyone not named Sinner, his pre-Djokovic draw is favorable, and he returns to New York with confidence after his run last year to the final.Jack Draper
ESPN BET Odds: +2500 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 0.1%First potential top-10 rival: No. 10 Lorenzo Musetti (fourth round) When his body cooperates, the 2024 US Open semi-finalist looks like one of the main candidates to turn the two greats of men’s tennis into a trio. He could face Canadian Gabriel Diallo in the third round, so he won’t have much time to get into shape. Others: Emma Navarro (2024 semi-finalist, +3300), Alex De Minaur (two-time quarter-finalist, +4000), Elina Svitolina (2019 semi-finalist, +4000), Belinda Bencic (2019 semi-finalist, +5000), Leylah Fernandez (2021 finalist, +5000), Karolina Muchova (2023 semi-finalist, +5000), Casper Ruud (2022 finalist, +8000), Frances Tiafoe (two-time semi-finalist, +8000), Felix Auger-Aliassime (2021 semi-finalist, +10000), Beatriz Haddad Maia (2024 quarter-finalist, +10000), Karen Khachanov (2022 semi-finalist, +10000), Victoria Azarenka (three-time finalist, +15000), Gael Monfils (2016 semi-finalist, +20000), Maria Sakkari (2021 semi-finalist, +20000), Caroline Garcia (2022 semi-finalist, +40000), Pablo Carreno Busta (two-time semi-finalist, +100000) The list of female contenders in 2025 is endless
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Mirra Andreeva
ESPN BET Odds: +1000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 8.3%First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Emma Navarro (fourth round) Progress is rarely linear; that’s something Mirra Andreeva has certainly had to internalize in 2025. If she can get into action quickly enough to beat Alycia Parks in the first round, her draw could prove favorable. But we’ll see what kind of form she has to offer.Elena Rybakina
ESPN BET Odds: +1000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 4.8%Potential first top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jasmine Paolini (fourth round) Sabalenka had to let out a small groan when she saw Rybakina land in her quarter. Rybakina has won 8 of her last 10 matches and 5 of her last 8 against Sabalenka, including a 6-1, 6-4 drubbing in Cincinnati. (Of course, she might first have to get past Paolini, against whom she has lost three of four).Victoria Mboko
ESPN BET Odds: +2000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 1.8%First potential top-10 rival: No. 10 Emma Navarro (third round) Sofia Kenin, Gauff, Rybakina, and Osaka have combined to win eight Slam titles, seven on hard courts. If she can handle the expectations and hype, she could make her first big run at a Slam in New York.Amanda Anisimova
ESPN BET Odds: +2000 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 1.6%First potential top-10 rival: No. 2 Swiatek (quarterfinals)Is there still fuel in the tank? The 23-year-old player has a 2-2 record since Wimbledon and 3-5 overall at the US Open. Can she at least reach a quarterfinal rematch with Swiatek?
Jasmine Paolini
ESPN BET Odds: +3300 | Tennis Abstract Odds: 2.4%First potential top-10 rival: No. 9 Rybakina (fourth round) After reaching consecutive Slam finals in 2024, the 29-year-old player has a 6-3 record in Slams this year. Instead, she landed in Sabalenka’s quarter; she has lost eight sets in a row against the world number one. Others: Ekaterina Alexandrova (+4000), Jelena Ostapenko (+5000), Barbora Krejcikova (+5000), Liudmila Samsonova (+5000), Diana Shnaider (+5000), Clara Tauson (+5000), Marketa Vondrousova (+5000)Male Candidates for Revelation (and Resurgence)
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