India vs Australia: WTC Keys, India Needs 5 Wins

Australia vs. India: A Clash with Major Implications

The clash between Australia and India transcends the category of a simple sporting encounter, becoming a series of great magnitude with important consequences, especially with the final of the World Test Cricket Championship on the horizon in June. New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies, with a score of 2-0, places them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to repeat this result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to redouble their efforts to maintain their position.

India’s Perspective

India has participated in 4 series, accumulating 360 points, which represents 75% of points. He still has two series pending in the current cycle: against Australia and against England. Both consist of four tests, which implies the same point allocation: 30 for a win and 10 for a draw. If New Zealand scores all the points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, with a percentage of 70%. To secure their position above New Zealand, India will have to surpass this 70%. This requires India to score at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can be achieved in two ways: by winning five matches or by winning four and drawing three.

Given India’s outstanding track record as the home team, they have a high probability of obtaining all the points against England. This implies that they will need at least one victory, or three draws, in the four test matches in Australia to reach 150 points.

For example, if India loses against Australia with a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win awards 30 points and a draw 10, they will only be able to reach the 110 points if they win all four matches.

The Situation in Australia

Australia has played 3 series, with 296 points and a percentage of 82.22. Currently, Australia needs to surpass 420 points to reach a percentage above 70%, as long as the series against South Africa is played. In case of cancellation of this series, their goal will be to surpass 336 points. The series against South Africa, which is expected to consist of three tests, will award 40 points for a win and 13 for a draw.

Despite injury problems, Australia remains in a strong position, thanks to accumulated points. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will add 356 points, with a percentage of 74.17. Even a 1-0 series against South Africa would take them to 422 points, surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, they will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to keep their percentage above 70%.