WNBA Analysis: Predictions and Perspectives Four Weeks Before the End
As the WNBA regular season nears its end, with only four weeks remaining, predictions about the teams that will lead the playoffs begin to take shape. Although the Minnesota Lynx are expected to secure the top spot and Napheesa Collier remains the MVP favorite, there are still many unknowns to be resolved.
The analyses conducted in May, such as the possible qualification of the Golden State Valkyries to the 2025 playoffs, seem more feasible now. However, injuries and player movements have altered the lineups, making strategies pragmatic.
Getting to the end of a 44-game schedule with the full team is a challenge. The goal is to reach the postseason with the best possible health and cohesion, although in some cases, simply qualifying will be a success.Allisha Gray and the Dream are the hottest team in the WNBA right now, winners of six straight and one 2-point loss away from a 9-game winning streak.Here, a look at the key trends and predictions for the end of the season, according to the experts.
Atlanta Dream, favorite for second place?
For much of the season, the New York Liberty, the current WNBA champions, seemed to be the leading or second-best team in the league. However, the Atlanta Dream’s victory over the Seattle Storm, combined with the Liberty’s loss to the Las Vegas Aces, put Atlanta half a game ahead of New York in the standings.
Although the Liberty have a 2-1 advantage over the Dream in their regular season series, both teams will face each other again in Atlanta in 10 days. According to the analyses, the Dream have the most favorable remaining schedule in the WNBA. After facing the Storm, Valkyries, Aces, and Lynx, they will play the Connecticut Sun three times, the Los Angeles Sparks twice, and the Dallas Wings before the end of the regular season.
For its part, New York has the eighth most difficult schedule, with games against Las Vegas, Minnesota (twice), and Chicago Sky before traveling to Atlanta, and then facing several teams in the fight for the playoffs to close out the season.
In addition, the Liberty are awaiting the return of Breanna Stewart (bone injury), who is expected to be back at the end of August, while the Dream have recovered Brittney Griner and Rhyne Howard. Atlanta has shown good performance in the last month, winning six consecutive games and with an 8-2 record in their last 10, suggesting they could surpass the Liberty to secure second place.
Will Caitlin Clark return, but not Angel Reese?
The two best rookies from last season, Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, are currently sidelined due to injuries. Clark is suffering from a groin injury and Reese from a back injury. Neither the Indiana Fever nor the Chicago Sky have announced timelines for their return.
There is a possibility that neither of them will play in 2025, as they are prominent players and could focus on fully recovering for next year. However, both want to return and finish the current season.
Reese’s situation is different, as she hasn’t played since July 29. The Sky (8-24) have no chance of making the playoffs and could even fall below the Sun (6-26) in the standings.
Unless something unexpected happens, the Fever will play in the playoffs for the second consecutive year after seven seasons of absence. Clark has only played 13 games, the last on July 15. Although the Fever seemed like candidates for the WNBA Finals, that prospect has changed, even with Clark’s possible return. If Clark returns and is physically fit, this could increase Indiana’s chances of winning a playoff series.
The Storm will seek the playoffs
A six-game losing streak has left Seattle, which had a 16-11 record two weeks ago, in the eighth and final playoff spot. Worse yet, two of those losses were against the Los Angeles Sparks, who are half a game away and have secured a tie in the regular season series. The first-round pick that the Storm sent to the Washington Mystics for Brittney Sykes a week ago may end up in the lottery.
However, projections using the WNBA Basketball Power Index indicate that the Storm have an 82% chance of making the playoffs. Seattle’s first five losses were by less than four points each, a historic streak. Projecting forward, Seattle’s differential is a better indicator of their talent than their 50% record.
In addition to this, there’s a difficult schedule for Golden State, which includes a visit to Seattle in the last game of the Storm’s regular season, suggesting that the Storm still have a good chance of making the playoffs.
The Sparks deserved more All-Stars
Only Kelsey Plum, the top scorer, was selected to represent the Sparks. Dearica Hamby was the main absentee, despite Brionna Jones, Kayla McBride, and Brittney Sykes being included as injury replacements. Azura Stevens also deserved consideration, averaging 14.5 points and 8.4 rebounds, with 42% effectiveness in 3-point shots.
The main argument against multiple Los Angeles All-Stars was the team’s poor record, 6-13 at the time of the announcement. This was a result of injuries that left the Sparks with little depth at the guard and center positions, as well as the absence of Rae Burrell and Rickea Jackson for long periods.
Since they recovered, Los Angeles has been one of the best teams in the WNBA, with a 10-4 record since Independence Day. The Sparks have the best offensive rating in the league in that period. Selecting All-Stars based on the team’s record is rarely a good idea, and L.A.’s recovery is a useful reminder of why not.
The Wings Could Influence Playoff Spots
It is likely that the Wings, with a 9-24 record, will have difficulty entering the postseason. However, if Golden State, Seattle, Los Angeles, and Washington compete for the last two playoff spots, Dallas will have something to say about who advances. The Wings still have three games remaining against the Sparks, two against the Valkyries, and one against the Storm.
Arike Ogunbowale (knee pain) missed the 81-80 victory in Indiana on Tuesday. Maddy Siegrist tied her career high with 22 points; she returned from an injury on August 5, after being out since the second week of June. Li Yueru scored 20 points and Paige Bueckers, a favorite for the Rookie of the Year award, scored 16, plus 8 assists.
The Wings had lost 11 of 13 games before defeating the Fever, so there is no guarantee that they can influence the outcome for other teams. However, if they can regain their good performance in Indiana, the Wings could influence the playoff configuration.
Continuity on the benches?
Seven WNBA franchises replaced their coach after the 2024 season, in addition to Golden State’s first hiring. Currently, five of those teams are out of the playoffs: Los Angeles, Washington, Dallas, Chicago, and Connecticut. The Sparks could be the most likely to reach the postseason, which would likely cost Golden State or Seattle a playoff spot.
If it’s Seattle, they could choose to do without Noelle Quinn after five seasons. If Seattle arrives, we could see all current coaching positions remain, in addition to the addition of two new coaches with the expansion teams of Portland and Toronto.
What’s up with Dallas, where first-year coach Chris Koclanes has received criticism on social media for how some fans have perceived the players’ reactions towards him during games? The players themselves haven’t said anything about it, and Koclanes has a long connection with general manager Curt Miller. Both are in their first season in Dallas. It’s not unusual for teams to part ways with a coach after just one year, as Chicago did with Teresa Weatherspoon after last season, but it seems less likely to happen with Koclanes.
The first round of playoffs should be best-of-five games
The WNBA Finals will be a best-of-seven series for the first time in league history this year, but the expansion of the playoffs shouldn’t stop there. The first round, currently a three-game series, should be best-of-five, like the WNBA semifinals.
That measure would also make travel a little easier. The first round follows a 1-1-1 format, where the team with the best ranking hosts Game 1 and, if necessary, Game 3. If the playoffs started today, the Liberty would host the Storm. That implies a six-hour flight across the country for a single game, and then heading to Seattle for Game 2. In a best-of-five series, the trips would be longer, but there would be more recovery time between flights.
Yes, this would add more games. Yes, this would make the season even longer. But playing a best-of-three series is too small a sample. One of the best parts of the playoffs are the adjustments made from game to game. There is more tension, more excitement, and more appeal. The playoffs are the best time of year in any sport, and as the WNBA continues to grow, the playoffs must also grow.
Cathy Engelbert, Doing a Good Job?
This shouldn’t be considered a controversial opinion, but it might sound like one, as there’s so much negativity online towards Engelbert. In my opinion, it’s unwarranted.
From a business perspective, the WNBA is at its best moment in history. The immense popularity of Caitlin Clark and her cross-appeal to those who were not previously fans of women’s basketball cannot be overstated; her impact on the visibility of the league is enormous and unprecedented.
And the other WNBA stars, the high level of play in general, the greater commitment of team owners, the work of the players’ union, and the increased media coverage are important factors, of course.
But Engelbert also deserves credit. She took office in the summer of 2019 and has been at the helm of the 2020 collective bargaining agreement, the 2020 COVID-19 bubble season, the launch of the Commissioner’s Cup in-season competition, the move to charter flights, the move to a seven-game WNBA Finals, and the expansion to 18 teams by 2030. In any context, her time as commissioner remains very successful.
Are there still problems to solve? Of course, and we hope that many of them will be addressed in the new collective bargaining agreement. But Engelbert has overseen tremendous growth in the WNBA, which is the best possible thing for the players.
