In the preseason, all 32 NFL teams have high expectations, but the road to Super Bowl LX is full of challenges throughout the 17 regular season games. We often witness record-breaking performances, unexpected surprises, both on and off the field, and factors we don’t even imagine. The 2025 season will be no exception. To analyze the overall picture and assess the potential of each team this season, we turned to the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI). The FPI projected each team’s win totals based on 20,000 full-season simulations conducted by ESPN’s research team. To determine a range of possibilities, we selected the middle 90% of those simulations, providing us with a ceiling and a floor in terms of expected record for each team in 2025, eliminating unlikely extreme results. What records could the teams achieve if everything goes perfectly? And what would be their performance in the worst-case scenario? We analyze the ceilings and floors of the FPI for each team and asked our NFL correspondents to identify the key factor that will determine each team’s position within that spectrum of victories. However, our correspondents were forbidden from opting for the easy answer and writing about the success or failure of the quarterback they cover. Below, we will analyze each division, highlighting the determining factors for the 32 teams.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Ceiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9Determining factor: The defensive lineWhat is Buffalo’s defensive line capable of? The Bills focused on strengthening what they considered a weak point, investing in the defensive line group. They selected three linemen in the first four rounds of the 2025 draft. The impact of this young group would be significant, and T.J. Sanders’ performance during training camp is a positive sign. In addition, keeping Joey Bosa healthy for the postseason is a clear priority. Greg Rousseau and Ed Oliver need greater consistency for this group to advance. – Alaina Getzenberg
Miami Dolphins
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Determining factor: Secondary
Will the Dolphins’ secondary be able to maintain the level behind a solid defensive line? Miami shouldn’t have any problems pressuring quarterbacks this season with Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, Chop Robinson, and Zach Sieler, all healthy in training camp. Behind them, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick leads a secondary that replaces four of its five starters from last season. The Dolphins’ cornerbacks are young and inexperienced, but their inexperience could be mitigated by (what should be) effective pressure on the passer. – Marcel Louis-Jacques
New England PatriotsCeiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Determining factor: The Mike Vrabel effect
In his introductory press conference as coach, Vrabel said: “We just want to be good enough to take advantage of bad football.” For the most part, the Patriots have had the look of a well-organized team so far, which included an impressive 48-18 victory against the Commanders in the first preseason game. Vrabel, preaching an identity that starts with “effort and finishing,” focuses on the details. – Mike ReissNew York JetsCeiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13Determining factor: Aaron Glenn and a new culture The first-year coach inherits a penalty-prone team that was overpowered in the trenches and cracked under pressure (last season, the Jets had a record of six losses after leading in the fourth quarter). In a word, the 2024 Jets were soft. Glenn’s mission is to make the Jets physically and mentally tougher than last season. If he can achieve that, his first year will be a success. – Rich CiminiAFC North
Baltimore RavensCeiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9Determining factor: Rookie kicker Tyler Loop
As if he didn’t have enough pressure replacing Justin Tucker, Loop could also decide many games based on recent history. Last season, Tucker was 9 of 16 (56.3%) in the Ravens’ five losses and 13 of 14 (92.9%) in their 12 wins. In the last five years, rookie kickers have converted 82.8% of their field goal attempts (428 of 517). There will be many critical kicking situations because quarterback Lamar Jackson keeps Baltimore in games and hasn’t lost a game decided by more than one point since 2023. – Jamison HensleyCincinnati BengalsCeiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10Key factor: Defensive coordinator Al Golden
It’s no secret that the Bengals’ defense is what cost them a playoff spot last season. Cincinnati hopes that having Golden as their new defensive coordinator for 2025 will be key to unlocking the potential of the team’s young talent. Getting a better secondary play will be crucial to any defensive improvement this season. – Ben BabyCleveland Browns
{“content”: “Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13″}Determining factor: The offensive line The Browns are returning to the offensive scheme that Kevin Stefanski operated in his first seasons as coach, with an emphasis on running the ball. For this to be successful, Cleveland will need its offensive line to return to its dominant form. The Browns have an experienced line, but also an aging one. Only one projected starter, left tackle Dawand Jones, is under 30 years old. – Daniel OyefusiPittsburgh SteelersCeiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11
Determining factor: The offensive lineAlthough Mike Tomlin (famously without a losing season) is the determining factor in raising the level of his team each year, the Steelers’ season will largely depend on the unit in charge of protecting 41-year-old veteran Aaron Rodgers. Last year, the Steelers’ offensive line allowed 49 sacks, one of the highest in the league. The group, led by second-year center Zach Frazier, has more experience, but tackles Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu are essentially entering their first seasons playing in their positions in the NFL. Jones struggled at times as a right tackle in the last two years, but enters this season in his natural position of left tackle, while Fautanu is on the right after missing most of last season due to injury. – Brooke Pryor
AFC South
Houston TexansCeiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11Determining factor: The offensive lineCan the group protect quarterback C.J. Stroud and establish the line of scrimmage in the running game? If the Texans’ offensive line can’t protect the third-year quarterback and run the ball effectively, hopes of reaching Super Bowl LX will vanish in the blink of an eye. – DJ Bien-Aime
Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12Determining factor: Defensive end Laiatu LatuCan Latu make a leap in his second year? The Colts are betting heavily on their 2024 first-round pick, as evidenced by the fact that they let top pass rusher Dayo Odeyingbo walk in free agency. That was a calculated risk based on Latu’s obvious pass-rushing skills and his high ceiling. But the UCLA product has to harness that potential even more this season and get more production than the four sacks he recorded last season. If Latu takes a step forward, he could help unlock the full potential of a talented defensive line. – Stephen Holder
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12Determining factor: Pass defense The defense must be much better to limit explosive passing plays. The Jaguars unit allowed the most pass plays of 40 or more yards in the league (14) for a total of 770 yards (mainly due to coverage errors), and that was a major reason why Jacksonville allowed 25.6 points per game in 2024 (the fourth worst in the NFL). The signings of safety Eric Murray (from Baltimore) and cornerback Jourdan Lewis (from Dallas) and the drafting of Travis Hunter (when he plays defense) should help. – Michael DiRoccoTennessee Titans{“content”: “Ceiling: 9-8 | Floor: 4-13″}Determining factor: The offensive line Giving Cameron Ward enough time in the pocket is possibly the most important factor in his development. The Titans signed Dan Moore Jr. to an $80 million contract, demonstrating their commitment to protecting Ward. Moore’s success is critical because it allows Tennessee to improve at both left and right tackle, as last year’s starter, JC Latham, switched sides to give the Titans what they hope will be top-tier protectors for their rookie quarterback. – Turron DavenportAFC West
Denver BroncosCeiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11Determining factor: Renewed defense
The Broncos took an already top-tier defense (number 3 in scoring defense, number 1 in sacks, and number 1 in defensive EPA in 2024) and added LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga in free agency, as well as CB Jahdae Barron with their first pick in the April draft. Greenlaw and Hufanga have battled injuries in the past, and Greenlaw missed the Broncos’ field work in the offseason program and more than a week of training, both times with leg injuries. Linebacker Alex Singleton also missed some time in camp with a thumb fracture; LB Drew Sanders will miss several weeks with a foot ligament injury; and safety Brandon Jones was held out of the joint practice with the 49ers. If the Broncos recover and can largely keep the same group on the field for 15, 16, or 17 games, it’s a championship-caliber defense that could fuel a deep playoff run and one of the reasons coach Sean Payton has said he believes the Broncos are a Super Bowl-caliber team. – Jeff LegwoldKansas City ChiefsCeiling: 13-4 | Floor: 8-9Determining factor: Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons The Chiefs are ready for their offense to be a spaceship again. But for that to happen, quarterback Patrick Mahomes will need time and proper protection with the help of Simmons to load his right arm. With few changes on defense, the most the Chiefs can improve on from last season is their offense, which they would like to see consistently score 30 points on the scoreboard. If Simmons struggles, Mahomes will once again have to overcome a pretty big obstacle. – Nate Taylor
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 5-12Determining factor: Brian Schottenheimer
How ready is Schottenheimer for his first head coaching job? He watched his father, Marty, coach four teams and has been an assistant coach in the NFL for over 20 years. The players like the culture he has built so far in the spring and summer, but he will be counted on to make split-second decisions that will impact winning and losing, which ultimately will be how he is judged. The Cowboys are not a typical team, given the attention they receive every hour. – Todd Archer
Determining factor: Running back Saquon Barkley
What can Barkley do for a repeat? The reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year became the ninth player to run for more than 2,000 yards during the regular season, fueling Philadelphia’s Super Bowl charge. None of the previous eight players who reached 2,000 yards were able to achieve the feat the following season: all finished with 1,500 yards or less the following year. The Eagles can’t afford too sharp a drop. “It’s very difficult to do it twice,” Barkley said, “because it’s difficult to do it the first time.” – Tim McManus
Washington CommandersCeiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10Determining factor: Improved defense
Washington’s offense will face more challenges playing 11 games against teams ranked among the top 13 scoring defenses last season. The Commanders need more from their defense, specifically in the fourth quarter. They ranked 18th in scoring and 13th in yards (though 30th in yards per carry per game), but in the fourth quarter they ranked 28th or worse in nine key categories. Their secondary should improve a lot with the addition of rookie cornerback Trey Amos and a healthy Marshon Lattimore, but the latter needs to be durable, something he hasn’t been in the last three years. A reinforced defensive line, with multiple key additions, including pass rusher Von Miller, needs to produce. – John KeimNFC North
Chicago Bears
Ceiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11Determining factor: Ben Johnson’s offenseHow quickly will the Bears be able to run Johnson’s offense? Chicago went out and got the best play-caller available this offseason with the belief that some ingenuity and creativity can create one of the NFL’s most explosive units, a characterization not historically associated with Chicago offenses. But, how many games will it take for the offense to function at a high level? The Lions started slowly during Johnson’s first season calling plays in 2022, and Johnson said that what he’s asking of his current players is more complex than what was tasked to those in Detroit at the beginning. The key to success comes from Johnson believing in opportunities for quarterback Caleb Williams to gain confidence in executing the scheme from the start, even while still seeking to master the details. – Courtney Cronin
Detroit Lions
Ceiling: 12-5 | Floor: 7-10Determining factor: New coordinators
How quickly will the Lions adapt to new coordinators Kelvin Sheppard and John Morton? After a 15-win season in 2024, Detroit lost both coordinators (Aaron Glenn to the Jets and Ben Johnson to the Bears) to head coaching positions this offseason. Now, Sheppard, Detroit’s defensive leader, and Morton, the offensive guru, are taking on key roles for a team with high expectations of reaching Super Bowl LX. Both will be under the microscope, as Detroit will play a first-place schedule after winning their division. The Lions are the fourth team since 2000 to lose both coordinators to head coaching jobs in the same offseason, according to ESPN Research. – Eric Woodyard
Green Bay PackersCeiling: 12-5 | Floor: 6-11Determining factor: Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley
What more could Hafley do than rank fifth in the NFL in total defense, seventh against the run, and sixth in the fewest points allowed, all in his first season at the helm? If he can find consistent pressure on the passer, then this could go to the next level. Hafley would prefer to follow the Eagles’ model of getting home with four, but that didn’t generate enough pressure last season. The Packers ranked 17th in the NFL in pressures last season, according to ESPN Research. Since they didn’t add a significant pass rusher in free agency or early in the draft, it will be up to Hafley, and perhaps new defensive line coach DeMarcus Covington, to find a way. – Rob Demovsky
Minnesota VikingsCeiling: 11-6 | Floor: 6-11Determining factor: The racing game
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