New Zealand close to the final of the World Test Cricket Championship
The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies has given them a high probability of reaching the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand finished the series very close to the top spot in the Test ranking: they are only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory by innings in Wellington.However, the news was not without drama. For several hours after the end of the match, the ICC’s predictor tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, causing confusion in the cricket community. This appeared to be an error, as the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia holds the top spot with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. The predictor later reflected this ranking.
Australia could extend that slight advantage if they win the home series against India, but two wins over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points from four series in the current WTC cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later on, they will finish with 420 points from five series. That will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final to be played at Lord’s in the English summer. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to earn points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the criteria for absolute points classification to a percentage of points played. Or, in other words, points per series played. Australia is currently at the top of the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a three-match Test series scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two Test matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.By the time India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will allow them to surpass New Zealand.
As for the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
